Euro weakens ahead of ECB this week
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 1st December 2008 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) finished the weak on the front foot as Euro weakness helped the USD to gain against most majors. US stocks rallied for the 4th time this week up over 12% on optimism that aggressive world wide rate cuts in the coming week will underpin stocks. In U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was up 3.47 points (0.23%) and the Dow Jones was up 102 points (1.17%) Crude Oil closed down $0.01 ending the New York session at $54.39 per barrel. Looking ahead, October ISM Manufacturing is expected at 37 vs. 38.9 showing a further contraction.
·The Euro (EUR) retraced a lot of the weeks up move as European data slumped. Eurozone Inflation showed a sharp slowdown to 2.1% in November vs. 3.2 in October. The ECB target rate is 2% and the fall opens up possible aggressive rate cuts. Eurozone Unemployment jumped to 7.7% vs. 7.6% helping to undermine economic sentiment. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2646 and a high of 1.2957 before closing the day at 1.2705. Looking ahead, October German Retail Sales are seen up 0.5% vs. -2.3% previously.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) tracked the equities during the day although struggled to capitalize on the improved risk sentiment as crosses weighed the USD/JPY down. EUR/JPY fell sharply on the above mentioned economic data and expectations of rate cuts in the UK and Australia undermined further gains in those pairs. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 95.15 and a high of 95.74 before closing the day around 95.68 in the New York session.
·The Sterling (GBP) tracked the Euro lower slipping below 1.53 briefly before recovering on the back on US stock gains to end the week well supported. UK data continued to be very weak with CBI retail trade survey falling to -46 to -27. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.5259 and a high of 1.5448 before closing the day at 1.5415 in the New York session. Looking ahead,
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued to be supported as US stocks made record gains during the week trading in a range between 65 and 66 as USD strength capped gains. The market is focusing on the RBA meeting on Tuesday and speculation that the central bank may cut aggressively to stimulate the faltering economy. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6480 and a high of 0.6601 before closing the US session at 0.6554.
·Gold (XAU) continued to trade in a tight range as USD strength countered demand for the precious metal. Overall trading with a low of USD$809 and high of USD$821 before ending the New York session at USD$818 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2568 |
1.2645 |
1.2695 |
1.2968 |
1.3081 |
|
USD/JPY |
93.56 |
94.61 |
95.45 |
97.43 |
97.55 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5176 |
1.5258 |
1.5375 |
1.5449 |
1.5534 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6333 |
0.6430 |
0.6530 |
0.6618 |
0.6696 |
|
XAU/USD |
743.00 |
786.00 |
818.00 |
830.50 |
856.00 |
Initial support at 1.2645 (Nov 28 low) followed by 1.2568 (Nov 24 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2968 (Nov 27 low) at followed by 1.3081 (Nov 25 high)
·Yen – 95.45
Initial support is located at 94.61 (Nov 26 low) followed by 93.56 (Nov 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 97.43 (Nov 25 high) followed by 97.55 (Nov 17 high).
·Pound – 1.5375
Initial support at 1.5258 (Nov 28 low) followed by 1.5176 (Nov 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5449 (Nov 28 level) followed by 1.5534 (Nov 25 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6530
Initial support at 0.6430 (Nov 26 low) followed by the 0.6333 (Nov 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6618 (Nov 25 high) followed by 0.6696 (Nov 14 high).
·Gold – 818
Initial support at 786 (Nov 24 low) followed by 743 (Nov 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 830.5 (Nov 25 high) followed by 856 (Oct 15 high).
