China cuts rates, Japan Away Today
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 23rd December 2008 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) traded in a range against the majors but still managed to make small gains. Oil continued to fall but gold and copper gained on the news that China cut rates by 27bps. US Stocks fell but equity markets have been experiencing less volatility in the last 2 weeks. In U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was down -31 points (2.04%) and the Dow Jones was down -59 points (-0.69%). Crude Oil closed down $2.45 ending the New York session at $39.91 per barrel. Looking ahead, Q3 GDP is expected to be confirmed at -0.5% and December Michigan Consumer Sentiment is expected to jump to 66.5 vs. 57.5 previously. Also released November Existing Home Sales are forecast at 4.9m vs. 4.98m previously.
·The Euro (EUR) found some strength with year end demand flows before easing back in the US session to finish roughly were it began. Industrial Orders slipped -4.7% vs. -4.0 forecast which add further to downside risks for the Eurozone Economy. German Consumer Confidence remained at 2.1 for January. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3903 and a high of 1.4124 before closing the day at 1.3950. Looking ahead, Eurozone Current Account and Investment Flows for October are released.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) was sold asNovember Trade Balance came in at -257Bn Yen vs. -223Bn forecast pointing a severe contraction in exports. EUR/JPY found a lot of support during the Asian session. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.54 and a high of 90.49 before closing the day around 90.20 in the New York session.
·The Sterling (GBP) failed in getting above the key 1.5000 level and receded back to support at 1.4700. Hurting sentiment was an IMF official noting the level of UK debt is ‘disturbing’. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.4689 and a high of 1.4993 before closing the day at 1.4856 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Final GDP is expected to be confirmed at -0.5% for the third quarter. Also released Q3 Current Account seen at -11.85Bn.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) kept to a very tight range with 0.6800 supporting and 0.6900 capping. Stronger Gold and Copper was offset by falling US equities. Also of note was the little conviction in direction as volume wide down into Christmas. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6801 and a high of 0.6894 before closing the US session at 0.6830.
·Gold (XAU) rebounded 1% as copper climbed on China rate cut news. Overall trading with a low of USD$831 and high of USD$839 before ending the New York session at USD$852 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3824 |
1.3903 |
1.3945 |
1.4166 |
1.4306 |
|
USD/JPY |
88.43 |
89.08 |
90.20 |
90.47 |
90.74 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4679 |
1.4687 |
1.4825 |
1.4993 |
1.5187 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6663 |
0.6764 |
0.6825 |
0.6927 |
0.7139 |
|
XAU/USD |
802.00 |
830.00 |
845.00 |
881.00 |
900.00 |
·Euro – 1.3945
Initial support at 1.3903 (Dec 22 low) followed by 1.3824 (Dec 19 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4166 (38.2% retrace 1.4719 to 1.3824) at followed by 1.4306 (Dec 19 high)
·Yen – 90.20
Initial support is located at 89.08 (Dec 22 low) followed by 88.43 (Dec 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.47 (Dec 22 high) followed by 90.74 (Dec 16 high).
·Pound – 1.4825
Initial support at 1.4687 (Dec 18 low) followed by 1.4679 (Dec 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4993 (Dec 22 high) followed by 1.5187 (Dec 19 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6825
Initial support at 0.6764 (Dec 18 low) followed by the 0.6663 (Dec 16 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6927 (Dec 19 high) followed by 0.7139 (Dec 18 high).
·Gold – 845
Initial support at 830 (Dec 19 low) followed by 802 (Dec 10 low). Initial resistance is now at 881 (Dec 17 high) followed by 900 (Key Psychological round number).
