Oil Surges on Middle East Conflict
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 30th December 2008 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) came under pressure initially as Oil and Gold surged in Asia on reports of escalating conflict in the Gaza Strip. Gold was up over $20 an ounce at one stage and Oil was steadily bought above $40 a barrel to highs above $42 before being sold back to $38. USD losses were pared back though as the Dow rallied off lows helping the USD/JPY to reclaim the key 90 level. In U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was down 19 points (-1.3%) and the Dow Jones was down -31 points (-0.30%). Crude Oil closed up $2.31 ending the New York session at $40.02 per barrel. Looking ahead, October Case Shiller House Price index is expected to fall -1.8%. Also released, December Consumer Confidence expected at 45 vs. 44.9 previously. The December Chicago PMI is forecast at 33 vs. 33.8 previously.
·The Euro (EUR) had a rollercoaster day with both ends tested as the market searched for direction. Initially surging Oil and record highs in the EUR/GBP let the Euro climb above 1.4350 before profit taking and a $4 slump in Oil reversed the markets direction. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4010 and a high of 1.4362 before closing the day at 1.4020. Looking ahead, Eurozone Private Loans are seen at 7.5% in November vs. 7.8% previously.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) with stocks providing little direction the majors led the way in deciding direction for the Yen today. With the Euro rally the EUR/JPY found legs surging above 1.2900 while USD/JPY dipped below 90 briefly. Late USD strength saw the USD/JPY recover but most crosses eased back as their respective majors tested lows. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.77 and a high of 90.75 before closing the day around 90.60 in the New York session.
·The Sterling (GBP) was confused at the start of the day as broad USD weakness prompted cable buying. As soon as that was over though the bearish sentiment returned with a crushing resolve with record highs in the EUR/GBP above 0.9800 inspiring a new year low in the GBP/USD in early Asia Tuesday. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.4385 and a high of 1.4769 before closing the day at 1.4420 in the New York session.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) was buoyed by the large gains in commodities although gains were not sustained as Oil slipped off highs and safe haven flows kept risk taking to a minimum. Good gains against the GBP/USD underpinned the relative strength of the commodity currency. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6840 and a high of 0.6968 before closing the US session at 0.6860.
·Gold (XAU) jumped $20 in Early Asian trade before falling back as Oil came off highs and USD strengthened late in the day. Overall trading with a low of USD$842 and high of USD$873 before ending the New York session at USD$872 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3824 |
1.3903 |
1.3955 |
1.4027 |
1.4367 |
|
USD/JPY |
89.11 |
89.76 |
90.70 |
90.84 |
91.30 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4300 |
1.4385 |
1.4420 |
1.4500 |
1.4553 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6759 |
0.6798 |
0.6865 |
0.6969 |
0.7139 |
|
XAU/USD |
843.00 |
874.00 |
881.00 |
890.00 |
930.00 |
·Euro – 1.3955
Initial support at 1.3903 (Dec 22 low) followed by 1.3824 (Dec 19 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4027 (Dec 29 low) at followed by 1.4166 (38.2% retrace 1.4719 to 1.3824)
·Yen – 90.70
Initial support is located at 89.76 (Dec 23 low) followed by 89.11 (Dec 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.84 (Dec 26 high) followed by 91.30 (Dec 25 high).
·Pound – 1.4420
Initial support at 1.4385 (Dec 30 low) followed by 1.4300 (Big Figure). Initial resistance is now at 1.4500 (Key level) followed by 1.4553 (Dec 29 low).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6865
Initial support at 0.6798 (Dec 26 low) followed by the 0.6759 (Dec 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6969 (Dec 29 high) followed by 0.7139 (Dec 18 high).
·Gold – 881
Initial support at 874 (Dec 29 low) followed by 843 (Dec 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 890 (Dec 29 high) followed by 930 (Oct 10 high).
