USD finds strength in safety
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 14th January 2009 (00:30GMT)
- U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) weak Asian stocks led to further strength in both the Yen and Dollar. High Yielder’s were especially hard hit as risk aversion spiked higher. US Trade Balance beat expectations in November at -40bn vs. -56bn previously. Benrnanke spoke about further measures he believes necessary, stating he would like to see further government aid to banks to sure up their balance sheets along with a aggressive stimulus package. In U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was up 7 points (-2.09%) and the Dow Jones was down 25 points (-0.30%). Crude Oil closed up $0.19 ending the New York session at $37.78 per barrel. Looking ahead, December Retail Sales are forecast at -1.2% vs. -1.8% previously. Also released, November business inventories forecast -0.5% vs. -0.6% previously.
- The Euro (EUR) broke through 1.33 in late Asian trading and trended down for most of the day as market was unwilling to buy before the rate announcement Thursday. ECB President spoke but made no mention of Interest rates. EUR/GBP jumped on pound weakness. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3142 and a high of 1.3358 before closing the day at 1.3185. Looking ahead, German GDP is forecast at 1.4% vs. 2.5% previously.
- The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened against most crosses as the Nikkei finished down 4% but was unable to make much head way against the renewed USD with the 89 level supporting. GBP/JPY fell sharply on heavy selling from momentum and model funds. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.80 and a high of 89.87 before closing the day around 89.40 in the New York session.
- The Sterling (GBP) trended lower as appetite for the pound evaporated and the pair fell to 1.4500 supports. GBP/JPY fell to new year lows as the market focus on the narrowing of UK interest rates to Japans. GBP Trade Deficit widened to a record -8.33 Bn in November. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.4470 and a high of 1.4816 before closing the day at 1.4520 in the New York session.
- The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued to fall after support at .6770 was cracked by ongoing risk aversion and AUD/JPY selling. Adding to the downside pressure was the rating downgrade of NZD by S& P which could overflow onto negative AUD sentiment. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6578 and a high of 0.6791 before closing the US session at 0.6620.
- Gold (XAU) gold ended slightly higher as the market consolidated the sharp drop on Monday. Overall trading with a low of USD$816.20 and high of USD$831 before ending the New York session at USD$821 an ounce.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
| EUR/USD |
1.2904 |
1.3001 |
1.3205 |
1.3489 |
1.3752 |
| USD/JPY |
88.72 |
88.79 |
89.30 |
90.30 |
91.67 |
| GBP/USD |
1.4378 |
1.4470 |
1.4520 |
1.5154 |
1.5374 |
| AUD/USD |
0.6490 |
0.6576 |
0.6680 |
0.6820 |
0.7042 |
| XAU/USD |
774.00 |
802.00 |
822.00 |
857.00 |
870.00 |
- Euro – 1.3205
Initial support at 1.3001 (Dec 11 low) followed by 1.2904 (Dec 10). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3489 (Jan 12 high) at followed by 1.3752 (Jan 9 high - Yen – 89.30
Initial support is located at 89.79 (Jan 12) followed by 88.72 (Dec 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.30 (Jan 12 high) followed by 91.67 (Jan 9 high). - Pound – 1.4520
Initial support at 1.4470 (Jan 13 low) followed by 1.4378 (Jan 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5154 (Jan 12 high) followed by 1.5374 (Jan 8 high). - Australian Dollar – 0.6680
Initial support at 0.6576 (Dec 15 low) followed by the 0.6490 (Dec 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6820 (Jan 13 high) followed by 0.7042 (Jan 12 high). - Gold – 822
Initial support at 802 (Jan 12 low) followed by 774 (Dec 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 857 (Jan 12 high) followed by 870 (Jan 6 high).
