Soros Sounds Warning on the Euro
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 30th January 2009 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gained on fresh risk aversion as bad economic data and profit taking sent world equities lower. US data was weak with Durable goods in December falling 2.6% vs. 2% forecast. Also released December home sales which fell to a record low of 333K. Crude Oil closed down -$0.72 ending the New York session at $41.44 per barrel. In US share markets, the Dow Jones fell 226 points or -2.70 and the NASDAQ fell 50 points or -3.24%. Looking ahead, Q4 preliminary GDP is forecast at-5.4% vs. -0.5% in Q3. Also released, Final January Michigan Consumer Confidence forecast 61.9 vs. 60.1 previously.
·The Euro (EUR) a slew of economic data pointed to a continued depressed economy with record lows sentiment readings and German Unemployment jumping 56K in December. Also weighing was an article by George Soros questioning the survivability of the EURO during the economic crisis unless a global bad bank was created. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2918 and a high of 1.3178 before closing the day at 1.2960. Looking ahead, Eurozone Inflation forecast at 1.4% in January and the December Unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 7.9% from 7.8% previously.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened as stocks slumped throughout the world. December Retail Sales dropped -2.7% vs. -1.6% forecast. EUR/JPY fell tracking the major lower but USD/JPY held up well as dollar strength held the pair lose to 90. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.49 and a high of 90.64 before closing the day around 90.10 in the New York session. UPDATE DECEMBER INDUSTRIAL OUT -9.6% vs. -9% FORECAST.
·The Sterling (GBP) was one of the better performing currencies shrugging off GBP/JPY selling to gain against the USD and EUR as the market covered shorts and the Pound rally continued. EUR/GBP fell towards the key 90 level. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.4075 and a high of 1.4410 before closing the day at 1.4310 in the New York session. Looking Ahead, December Consumer Credit seen at 0.7b vs. 0.75b previously.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) under constant pressure as the Aussie bowed to USD and JPY strength. Some AUD weakness is being attributed to NZD weakness as the 1.5% New Zealand rate cute fuels rumors of large RBA cuts next Tuesday. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6489 and a high of 0.6660 before closing the US session at 0.6520.
·Gold (XAU) regained the $900 an ounce level as risk aversion rose again ahead of the Key US GDP reading tonight. Overall trading with a low of USD$875 and high of USD$909 before ending the New York session at USD$909 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2330 |
1.2862 |
1.2905 |
1.3179 |
1.3329 |
|
USD/JPY |
87.13 |
87.99 |
89.70 |
90.76 |
90.97 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3931 |
1.4070 |
1.4240 |
1.4416 |
1.4430 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6291 |
0.6418 |
0.6480 |
0.6682 |
0.6732 |
|
XAU/USD |
852.00 |
874.00 |
904.00 |
909.00 |
916.00 |
·Euro – 1.2905
Initial support at 1.2862 (Jan 29 low) followed by 1.2330 (Oct 28 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3179 (Jan 29 high) at followed by 1.3329 (Jan 27 high)
·Yen – 89.70
Initial support is located at 87.99 (Jan 23 low) followed by 87.13 (Projected downside target). Initial resistance is now at 90.76 (Jan 28 high) followed by 90.97 (Jan 20 high).
·Pound – 1.4240
Initial support at 1.4070 (Jan 29 low) followed by 1.3931 (Jan 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4416 (61.8% retrace 1.4980 to 1.3504) followed by 1.4430 (Jan 20 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6480
Initial support at 0.6418 (Jan 26 low) followed by the 0.6291 (Jan 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6682 (Jan 29 high) followed by 0.6732 (Jan 19 high).
·Gold – 904
Initial support at 874 (Jan 29 low) followed by 852 (Jan 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 909 (Jan 29 high) followed by 916 (Jan 26 high).
