Wild trading on Stockmarket Rollercoaster
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 13th February 2009 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) strengthened on safe haven flows during Asia and Europe as equities tumbled. The situation was reversed in the last hour of trading in New York as rumors spread of a new mortgage rescue initiative to be announced from the Obama administration. January Retail Sales unexpectedly gained 1% vs. -0.8% forecast. Weekly Jobless Claims continued to be weak though at 623K vs. 610K expected. Crude Oil closed down -$1.96 ending the New York session at $33.98 per barrel. In US share markets, the Dow Jones fell 6 points or -0.09% and the NASDAQ gained 11 or 0.73%. Looking ahead, February Michigan Sentiment seen forecast at 61 vs. 61.2 previously.
·The Euro (EUR) weak economic data and risk aversion weighed on the pair with heavy EUR/JPY selling dragging the major through support at 1.2800. December Industrial Production drop -2.6% vs. -2.1% forecast. The late Dow rally saw a sharp bounce back to opening levels. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2723 and a high of 1.2942 before closing the day at 1.2890. Looking ahead, Q4 German GDP is forecast at -1.8% vs. -0.5% previously. Also released, Q4 Eurozone GDP is forecast to drop -1.3% vs. -0.2% previously.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) crosses likes stocks had a rollercoaster ride dropping during Asia and Europe before finishing NY on the bounce. January Corporate Goods Price Index dropped -0.2% Y/Y adding to speculation Japan might enter a deflationary Cycle. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.84 and a high of 90.75 before closing the day around 90.25 in the New York session. Looking ahead, are forecast to drop -0.6% vs. -1.2%.
·The Sterling (GBP) was one the worst performing currencies with the pair not finding support until the 1.41 figures was seen. The bounce off lows was also limited with EUR/GBP buying capping gains. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4147 and a high of 1.4413 before closing the day at 1.4300 in the New York session.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) had a busy day with the anticipated Employment data surprising to the topside with January actually producing 1.2K jobs vs. -20.5K forecast. The Unemployment Rate jumped to 4.8% vs. 4.5% though as more people entered the job market. This supported the pair in a test above 0.6600 but the market slipped and fell heavily as stocks slumped and news that the Australian Stimulus package had failed in the senate. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6432 and a high of 0.6614 before closing the US session at 0.6550.
·Gold (XAU) rallied again up to the noted resistance at $950 before settling back below the level when stocks rallied. Overall trading with a low of USD$936 and high of USD$952 before ending the New York session at USD$945 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2628 |
1.2707 |
1.2870 |
1.2944 |
1.2998 |
|
USD/JPY |
88..59 |
89.71 |
90.40 |
91.04 |
91.66 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3929 |
1.4137 |
1.4272 |
1.4415 |
1.4565 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6391 |
0.6403 |
0.6545 |
0.6617 |
0.6798 |
|
XAU/USD |
889.00 |
911.00 |
944.00 |
950.00 |
952.00 |
·Euro – 1.2870
Initial support at 1.2707 (Feb 2 low) followed by 1.2628 (Dec 5 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2944 (Feb 12 high) at followed by 1.2998 (Feb 11 high)
·Yen – 90.60
Initial support is located at 89.71 (Feb 11 low) followed by 88.60 (Feb 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.04 (Feb 12 high) followed by 91.66 (Feb 10 high).
·Pound – 1.4272
Initial support at 1.4137 (Feb 12 low) followed by 1.3929 (Jan 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4415 (Feb 12 high) followed by 1.4565 (Feb 11 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6545
Initial support at 0.6403 (Feb 5 low) followed by the 0.6391 (76.4% retrace 0.6249 to 0.6849). Initial resistance is now at 0.6617 (Feb 12 high) followed by 0.6798 (Feb 10 high).
·Gold – 944
Initial support at 911 (Feb 11 low) followed by 889 (Feb 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 950 (Key level) followed by 952 (Feb 12 high).
