US stocks continue to Rebound
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 13th March 2009 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) experienced another wave of weakness against most of the majors as Wall St rallied for the 3rd day. US Retail Sales were better than expected at -0.1% vs. -0.5% forecast. Weekly Jobless claims at 650K continue to be weak. The exception to USD strength was the Swiss Franc which fell heavily after the SNB cut rates and stated their intention to start Quantitative Easing. Crude Oil closed up 4.70 ending the New York session at $47.03 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 54 points or 3.97% whilst the Dow Jones gained 239 points or 3.46%. Looking ahead, International Trade Balance for January forecast to fall to -38Bln vs. -39.8Bln previously.
·The Euro (EUR) broke higher following stocks to breach 1.2900. Earlier in Europe some weakness was seen as China released some further poor news. Underpinning the move higher was the large move in Oil up over 9%. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2734 and a high of 1.2944 before closing the day at 1.2910. Looking ahead, January Retail Sales forecast 0.2% vs. 0% previously. Also, February German WPI previously at -0.4%.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) had an extremely volatile day with traders buying Yen aggressively in Asia before the sharp reversal in risk sentiment in the US saw it give up most of its gains. Q4 GDP was revised slightly better to -3.2% vs. -3.3% initial. Crosses were very well supported as the majors gained aggressively. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 95.68 and a high of 98.52 before closing the day around 97.55 in the New York session. Looking ahead, January Industrial Output previously at -10%.
·The Sterling (GBP) had a volatile day as selling into early Europe tested the downside before the equity rally reversed direction violently and the pair finished above 1.3900. GBP/CHF surged over 600 points. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3703 and a high of 1.3980 before closing the day at 1.3940 in the New York session.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) tested and failed above 0.6500 in Asia as the market took profit and concern about the Australian Job market remained after the February Unemployment figures. The Unemployment Change was much better than expected at +1.8K vs. -20K forecast but the Unemployment rate surged to 5.2% vs. 4.8% previously. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6413 and a high of 0.6577 before closing the US session at 0.6550.
·Gold (XAU) gained tracking other commodities higher on USD weakness. Overall trading with a low of USD$907 and high of USD$930 before ending the New York session at USD$925 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2617 |
1.2733 |
1.2895 |
1.2936 |
1.2992 |
|
USD/JPY |
94.63 |
95.67 |
97.65 |
98.53 |
99.19 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3548 |
1.3657 |
1.3920 |
1.3960 |
1.4183 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6281 |
0.6307 |
0.6525 |
0.6555 |
0.6643 |
|
XAU/USD |
874.00 |
889.00 |
925.00 |
930.00 |
944.00 |
·Euro – 1.2895
Initial support at 1.2733 (Mar 12 low) followed by 1.2617 (Mar 11 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2936 (Mar 12 low) at followed by 1.2992 (Feb 23 high)
·Yen – 97.65
Initial support is located at 95.67 (Mar 12 low) followed by 94.63 (Jan 6 resistance). Initial resistance is now at 98.53 (Mar 12 high) followed by 99.19 (Mar 9 high).
·Pound – 1.3920
Initial support at 1.3657 (Mar 12 low) followed by 1.3548 (Jan 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.3960 (Mar 12 high) followed by 1.4183 (Mar 9 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6525
Initial support at 0.6307 (Mar 9 low) followed by the 0.6281 (Mar 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6555 (Feb 25 high) followed by 0.6643 (Feb 13 high).
·Gold – 925
Initial support at 889 (Feb 3 low) followed by 874 (Jan 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 930 (Mar 12 high) followed by 944 (Mar 6 high).
