USD weakens as US banks Stabilize
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 12th March 2009 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) accelerated the weakness seen yesterday as rays of hope emerged and global stock markets remained buoyant. During the Asian session there was a slight reprieve for the dollar as news emerged that China’s Exports in February dropped -25% vs. a milder -5% forecast. Crude Oil closed down -$1.21 ending the New York session at $44.50 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 13 points or 0.98% whilst the Dow Jones gained 3.91 points or 0.06%. Looking ahead, Weekly Claims are forecast at 645K vs. 639K previously. February Retail Sales are forecast at -0.5% vs. 1.0% previously.
·The Euro (EUR) broke 1.28 and closed above the key level in a very bullish day for the single currency. Euro strength was in spite of some very weak data with German January Industrial Orders falling -8% vs. -2.2% forecast. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2618 and a high of 1.2863 before closing the day at 1.2840. Looking ahead, EU PPI is forecast at -0.2% in January. German January Industrial Output is forecast at -3% vs. -4.6% previously.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) responded to USD weakness with USD/JPY pulling back to 97.20 but most of the crosses remained relatively unchanged. The market is decidedly less bullish after the failure at 100 last week and stock market movements should again begin to direct movement. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 97.05 and a high of 98.79 before closing the day around 97.30 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Q4 GDP forecast to be unchanged at -3.3%.
·The Sterling (GBP) attempted to rally as the USD weakened but found it tough as the market only grudgingly buys the pound. The January Trade Balance was slightly worse than expected at -7.7Bn vs. -7.5Bn. EUR/GBP buying kept the cable under 1.3900. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3658 and a high of 1.3887 before closing the day at 1.3760 in the New York session.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) had a volatile trading day with the China story hurting the pair pulling it back to support at 0.6400. Buoyant stocks helped the pair to recover off lows and heavy USD selling saw the 0.6500 level achieved. Consumer Sentiment dropped -0.2% in March vs. February. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6398 and a high of 0.6525 before closing the US session at 0.6510. Looking ahead, Unemployment Change for February is forecast at -21.2K vs. 1.2K previously. February Unemployment is forecast at 5% vs. 4.8%. UPDATE UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE +1.8K. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 5.2%
·Gold (XAU) gained after investors bought the pair below $900 an ounce. Overall trading with a low of USD$893 and high of USD$913 before ending the New York session at USD$908 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2457 |
1.2533 |
1.2845 |
1.2865 |
1.2899 |
|
USD/JPY |
96.36 |
96.58 |
97.35 |
99.68 |
100.57 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3548 |
1.3657 |
1.3875 |
1.3905 |
1.4183 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6281 |
0.6307 |
0.6515 |
0.6555 |
0.6643 |
|
XAU/USD |
874.00 |
889.00 |
908.00 |
923.00 |
944.00 |
·Euro – 1.2845
Initial support at 1.2533 (Mar 6 low) followed by 1.2457 (Mar 4 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2865 (Mar 11 low) at followed by 1.2899 (Feb 25 high)
·Yen – 97.35
Initial support is located at 96.58 (Mar 6 low) followed by 96.36 (Feb 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 99.68 (Mar 5 high) followed by 100.57 (Nov 4 high).
·Pound – 1.3875
Initial support at 1.3657 (Mar 11 low) followed by 1.3548 (Jan 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.3905 (Mar 10 high) followed by 1.4183 (Mar 9 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6515
Initial support at 0.6307 (Mar 9 low) followed by the 0.6281 (Mar 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6555 (Feb 25 high) followed by 0.6643 (Feb 13 high).
·Gold – 908
Initial support at 889 (Feb 3 low) followed by 874 (Jan 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 923 (Mar 6 high) followed by 944 (Mar 6 high).
