Biggest rally in US stocks this year
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 11th March 2009 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) weakened as the US stock market staged a 5% rally after Citigroup reported that the first 2 months of 2009 were profitable. Bernanke also spoke about banking reform and suggested changes to mark to market accounting procedures would benefit the current situation. Crude Oil closed down $1.36 ending the New York session at $45.71 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 89 points or 7.07% whilst the Dow Jones gained 379 points or 5.80%. Looking ahead, Crude Oil Inventories are forecast -0.5Mln vs. -0.7Mln.
·The Euro (EUR) surged higher as stocks soared in Europe and Asia. Solid selling above 1.28 proved too big a hurdle for one day and the pair pulled back to supports at 1.2650. Euro weakness is still a theme that will require some time to turn around. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2613 and a high of 1.2812 before closing the day at 1.2680. Looking ahead, German PPI is forecast at -0.1% vs. -1.0% in January. German Industrial Orders are forecast at -2.2% vs. -6.9%.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) most of the crosses were very buoyant even as USD/JPY slumped on USD weakness. Leading Indicators fell 2.3% vs. -2% forecast. Equity market effects on the Yen are still pronounced but significantly less than previously. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 97.93 and a high of 99.12 before closing the day around 98.60 in the New York session.
·The Sterling (GBP) rallied with the pick up in risk appetite early Europe but weakness returned as the market remains concerned about the UK economy. Industrial Production fell -2.6% vs. -1.2%. As buying pressure waned the market sent the cable back to 1.3700. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3693 and a high of 1.3904 before closing the day at 1.3760 in the New York session. Looking ahead, January Trade Balance is forecast at -7.45 Bln.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) surged off support at 0.6300 as the equity market reversed direction and risk appetite increased dramatically. The market closed near noted resistance at 0.6500 and would require better than expected employment data tomorrow to break higher. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6330 and a high of 0.6487 before closing the US session at 0.6365. Looking ahead, Consumer Sentiment for March.
·Gold (XAU) broke below $900 as US banks surged 12% and systemic risk decreased in the market. Overall trading with a low of USD$891 and high of USD$922 before ending the New York session at USD$895 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2457 |
1.2533 |
1.2700 |
1.2822 |
1.2899 |
|
USD/JPY |
96.36 |
96.58 |
98.70 |
99.68 |
100.57 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3548 |
1.3691 |
1.3770 |
1.4183 |
1.4305 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6281 |
0.6307 |
0.6470 |
0.6488 |
0.6528 |
|
XAU/USD |
891.00 |
891.65 |
895.00 |
945.00 |
958.00 |
·Euro – 1.2700
Initial support at 1.2533 (Mar 6 low) followed by 1.2457 (Mar 4 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2822 (Mar 10 low) at followed by 1.2899 (Feb 25 high)
·Yen – 98.70
Initial support is located at 96.58 (Mar 6 low) followed by 96.36 (Feb 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 99.68 (Mar 5 high) followed by 100.57 (Nov 4 high).
·Pound – 1.3770
Initial support at 1.3691 (Mar 10 low) followed by 1.3548 (Jan 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4183 (Mar 9 high) followed by 1.4305 (Mar 6 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6470
Initial support at 0.6307 (Mar 9 low) followed by the 0.6281 (Mar 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6488 (Mar 10 high) followed by 0.6528 (Mar 4 high).
·Gold – 895
Initial support at 891.65 (Mar 10 low) followed by 891 (Feb 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 944 (Mar 6 high) followed by 958 (Mar 2 high).
