Positive end to a positive Week
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 16th March 2009 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) closed the week on the back foot as the stock market rally continued for a 4th day and investors pared back safe haven demand for the USD. The Trade balance was better than expected in January rising to -36Bn vs. -39.9B previously. Of concern for the Dollar comments by Chinese Premier Wen about the safety of US assets which prompted a reassuring response from Obama over the weekend. Crude Oil closed down 0.78 ending the New York session at $46.25 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 5 points or 0.38% whilst the Dow Jones gained 53 points or 0.75%. Looking ahead, February Industrial Output is forecast at -1.2% vs. -1.8%. Also released, NY Fed Manufacturing forecast at -32 vs. -34.65 previously.
·The Euro (EUR) orbited the 1.2900 level but struggled to make further gains with profit taking and heavy resistance above 1.2950 discouraging attempts higher. January Eurozone Retail Sales rose 0.1% vs. 0.2% forecast. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2862 and a high of 1.2957 before closing the day at 1.2930. Looking ahead, February Inflation is forecast at 0.4% vs. -0.8%. Also today ECB Trichet Speaks.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened across the board as stocks lifted for a 4th day and crosses pushed higher. January Industrial output was revised down -10.2% vs. -10.0% initially. The Nikkei closed up 5% and helped to improve risk sentiment. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 97.13 and a high of 98.67 before closing the day around 97.95 in the New York session.
·The Sterling (GBP) with no data out on Friday the GBP took its cue from the share market pushing higher back above 1.4000. Short Covering and a pullback in EUR/GBP the main source of support during the day. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3865 and a high of 1.4071 before closing the day at 1.4000 in the New York session.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) remained extremely well supported as the market broke above the key resistance of 0.6550 with pullbacks being seen as buying opportunities. Further gains were limited though by the 0.6600 level and the lack of follow through in the other majors. AUD/JPY pushed to month highs just under 65.00. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6512 and a high of 0.6605 before closing the US session at 0.6575.
·Gold (XAU) made gains on the back of USD weakness although further stability in the markets may start to affect the demand of gold itself and limit the topside. Overall trading with a low of USD$919 and high of USD$940 before ending the New York session at USD$928 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2617 |
1.2733 |
1.2925 |
1.2992 |
1.3093 |
|
USD/JPY |
94.63 |
95.67 |
98.00 |
98.85 |
99.19 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3657 |
1.3703 |
1.4000 |
1.4070 |
1.4183 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6307 |
0.6402 |
0.6575 |
0.6643 |
0.6799 |
|
XAU/USD |
889.00 |
905.00 |
927.00 |
944.00 |
958.50 |
·Euro – 1.2925
Initial support at 1.2733 (Mar 12 low) followed by 1.2617 (Mar 11 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2992 (Mar 13 high) at followed by 1.3093 (Feb 9 high)
·Yen – 98.00
Initial support is located at 95.67 (Mar 12 low) followed by 94.63 (Jan 6 resistance). Initial resistance is now at 98.85 (Mar 11 high) followed by 99.19 (Mar 9 high).
·Pound – 1.4000
Initial support at 1.3703 (Mar 12 low) followed by 1.3657 (Mar 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4070 (Mar 13 high) followed by 1.4183 (Mar 9 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6575
Initial support at 0.6402 (Mar 11 low) followed by the 0.6307 (Mar 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6643 (Feb 13 high) followed by 0.6799 (Feb 10 high).
·Gold – 927
Initial support at 905 (Mar 12 low) followed by 889 (Mar 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 944 (Mar 6 high) followed by 958 (Mar 2 high).
