USD hits year lows against Risky Currencies
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 20th May (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) came under pressure at the start of the European session with GBP breaking above resistance at 1.5350 to fresh year highs and taking AUD also to new highs above 0.7700. The optimism waned in the US session as stocks dropped into the day’s close. April Housing starts dropped to 0.458M vs. 0.52M forecast. Crude Oil was down $0.15 a barrel to close at 59.65. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 2 points or 0.13% and the Dow Jones was down 29 points or 0.34%. Looking ahead, Crude Oil Inventories forecast at -1.2 vs. -4.7m previously.
The Euro (EUR) rallied past 1.3600 before the release of the ZEW survey as the market continued to rebound. The May ZEW Current conditions dropped to -92.8 vs. -90 forecast. Zew Expectations jumped 18 points though to 31 and helped the Euro bounce. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3529 and a high of .1.3670 before closing at 1.3640. Looking ahead, German PPI forecast to drop -0.3% in April.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) spent most of the day above the 96 Yen level with the Nikkei enjoying 2% gains and the crosses supporting. Japanese Q1 GDP -4.0% was slightly better than the -4.2% forecast but still at long term lows. Concerning was the Capex which felt the largest drop on record. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 95.89 and a high of 96.73 before closing the day around 96.10 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) broke to record highs above 1.5500 as the market responded to the normalization of the financial markets. Banking health has helped the GBP more than most as London is a major financial hub. April CPI at 2.3% y/y vs. 2.4% forecast. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5294 and a high of 1.5527 before closing the day at 1.5480 in the New York session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) hit year highs after breaking above resistance at 0.7735 to touch 0.7785 before easing as Wall St. finished lower. RBA minutes released yesterday offered little new to future policy direction with the month by month approach now anticipated. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7628 and a high of 0.7785 before closing the US session at 0.7740. Looking ahead, May Consumer Sentiment previously at 8.3.
Gold (XAU) picked up some ground although couldn’t manage to reclaim the key $930 level. Overall trading with a low of USD$917 and high of USD$929 before ending the New York session at USD$925 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3343 |
1.3424 |
1.3635 |
1.3668 |
1.3739 |
|
USD/JPY |
93.54 |
94.15 |
96.15 |
97.84 |
98.82 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4944 |
1.5061 |
1.5480 |
1.5724 |
1.5885 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.7337 |
0.7451 |
0.7745 |
0.8097 |
0.8348 |
|
XAU/USD |
895.00 |
906.00 |
925.00 |
934.20 |
945.00 |
Euro – 1.3635
Initial support at 1.3424 (May 18 low) followed by 1.3343 (May 8 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3668 (March 19 high) followed by 1.3739 (Jan 8 high)
Yen – 96.15
Initial support is located at 94.15 (May 20 low) followed by 93.54 (Mar 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 97.84 (May 12 high) followed by 98.82 (May 11 high).
Pound – 1.5480
Initial support at 1.5061 (May 7 low) followed by 1.4944 (May 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5724 (Dec 17 high) followed by 1.5885 (Nov 10 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.7745
Initial support at 0.7451 (May 18 low) followed by the 0.7337 (May 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8097 (Sep 30 high) followed by 0.8348 (Oct 6 high).
Gold – 925
Initial support at 906 (May 8 low) followed by 895 (May 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 934.2 (May 15 high) followed by 945 (Mar 26 high).
