CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 1st June (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) came under severe pressure as major levels were broken throughout the day. The Euro led the charge as the key level of 1.4000 gave way and bullish data from India and Japan underpinned the move higher. Fitch revised California’s outlook to negative. Crude Oil finished up $1.23 to finish the day at $66.31 a barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 22 points or 1.29% and the Dow Jones was up 96 points or 1.15%. Looking ahead, ISM Manufacturing is forecast at 42.5 vs. 40.1 previously.
The Euro (EUR) was supported during Europe as German Retail Sales posted gains of 0.5% in April. The 1.4000 contained for some time on Friday but once broken the pair rallied for the rest of the day. USD weakness and buoyant stock underpinned the move higher as did lingering concerns about US debt. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3944 and a high of 1.4168 before closing at 1.4135. Looking ahead, PMI Manufacturing May forecast at 40.5 vs. 36.8 previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened considerably during the day as USD support melted to the 95 Level. Most of the crosses remained very well supported near year highs. USD/JPY needs to cooperate and move with equity markets if the recovery in crosses is to continue. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 95.00 and a high of 96.90 before closing the day around 95.28 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) surged 200 pips to fall just short of the 1.6200 level. Risk appetite has steadily increased and further gains can not be ruled out. Nationwide house prices dropped -0.4% vs. -1.2% forecast. EUR/GBP kept to a tight range above 0.8700 with further drops likely. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5929 and a high of 1.6198 before closing the day at 1.6132 in the New York session. Looking ahead, PMI Manufacturing (May) forecast at 44 vs. 42.9 previously.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) basically skipped 79 cents on the way to 80 in a powerful surge to close just under the major level. Equities and Commodities are both fueling the massive rally seen in the Aussie over the past 2 months. The RBA meets tomorrow and are expected to remain at 3.0%. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7848 and a high of 0.8015 before closing the US session at 0.7990. UPDATE April Retail Sales at 0.3% vs. 0.5% forecast
Gold (XAU) continued to make gains after clearing resistance at $967 to jump to $980 to be within striking distance of the key $1000 an ounce. Overall trading with a low of USD$960 and high of USD$980 before ending the New York session at USD$979 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3531 |
1.3728 |
1.4105 |
1.4169 |
1.4221 |
|
USD/JPY |
94.43 |
95.06 |
95.35 |
97.24 |
98.82 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5576 |
1.5757 |
1.6170 |
1.6198 |
1.6464 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.7630 |
0.7703 |
0.8000 |
0.8097 |
0.8152 |
|
XAU/USD |
925.00 |
941.00 |
978.00 |
980.00 |
1006.00 |
Euro – 1.4105
Initial support at 1.3728 (May 21 low) followed by 1.3531 (May 19 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4169 (May 29 high) followed by 1.4221 (Dec 30 high)
Yen – 95.35
Initial support is located at 95.06 (Mar 28 low) followed by 94.43 (Mar 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 97.24 (May 28 high) followed by 98.82 (May 11 high).
Pound – 1.6170
Initial support at 1.5757 (May 22 low) followed by 1.5576 (23.6% retrace 1.4398 to 1.5944). Initial resistance is now at 1.6198 (Nov 5 high) followed by 1.6464 (Oct 30 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.8000
Initial support at 0.7703 (May 26 low) followed by the 0.7630 (May 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8097 (Sep 30 high) followed by 0.8152 (76.4% retrace 0.8814 to 0.6009).
Gold – 978
Initial support at 941 (May 26 low) followed by 925 (May 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 980 (Mar 29 high) followed by 1006 (Feb 20 high).
