USD Starts to Climb on FOMC Uncertainty
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 22nd September (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was well supported from the open Monday as the market took risk off the table ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. The meeting could prove critical for the USD as policy makers express their thoughts on an exit strategy and signal their beliefs about the US economy. August Leading Indicators were 0.6% vs. 0.8% forecast. Crude Oil was down -$2.33 closing at $69.71. In US Stocks, DJIA -41 points closing at 9778, S& P -3 points closing at 1065 and NASDAQ +5 points closing at 2138. Looking ahead, September Richmond Fed index forecast at 17 vs. 14 previously.
The Euro (EUR) fell from the 1.4700 handle but was very resilient as dip buyers and Crosses supported. EUR/JPY broke above 135 Yen and EUR/GBP consolidated gains above 0.9050. The failure to test 1.4600 saw buyers gain the upper hand supported by US stocks which finished only slightly lower on the day. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4612 and a high of 1.4714 before closing at 1.4680.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) was a major mover when the market broke resistance on the USD/JPY at 91.60 and dragged the crosses higher. The Buying continued into the European session but the failure to hold above 92.50 saw the pair slump back to 92 supports. AUD/JPY was relatively unchanged as AUD/USD losses matched USD/JPY gains. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 91.30 and a high of 92.54 before closing the day around 92.05 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Bank holiday Tuesday and Wednesday.
The Sterling (GBP) was very weak for most of the day but found support at the lows and recovered well. The market is very short GBP at the moment and some are looking for a relief rally. With little data out this week the FOMC and G20 will take precedence. UK Rightmove September House Price Index +0.6% m/m. The Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6135 and a high of 1.6263 before closing the day at 1.6215 in the New York session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell back to 0.8600 supports as Oil crashed and Gold slipped below $1000 an ounce. Strong buying at the figure held firm and the pair managed a small bounce. AUD/JPY is still struggling to break 80 Yen over the last 2 weeks and the bulls are beginning to getting nervous with the market heavily long. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8591 and a high of 0.8683 before closing the US session at 0.8635.
Gold (XAU) had a few dips below $1000 but with little follow through the market ended back above the key level after a very strong downside test. Overall trading with a low of USD$996 and high of USD$1007 before ending the New York session at USD$100 an ounce.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.4467 |
1.4516 |
1.4680 |
1.4768 |
1.4866 |
|
USD/JPY |
90.13 |
90.99 |
92.05 |
93.30 |
94.07 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.6034 |
1.6114 |
1.6215 |
1.6568 |
1.6742 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8385 |
0.8529 |
0.8630 |
0.8814 |
0.8943 |
|
XAU/USD |
982.00 |
992.00 |
1003.00 |
1024.00 |
1032.00 |
Euro – 1.4680
Initial support at 1.4516 (Sept 14 low) followed by 1.4467 (Sept 9 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4768 (Sept 17 high) followed by 1.4866 (Sept 22 2008 high)
Yen – 92.05
Initial support is located at 90.99 (Sept 18 low) followed by 90.13 (Sept 16 low). Initial resistance is now at 93.3 (Sept 7 high) followed by 94.07 (Aug 28 high).
Pound – 1.6215
Initial support at 1.6114 (Sept 1 low) followed by 1.6034 (July 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6568 (Sept 17 high) followed by 1.6742 (Sept 11 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.8630
Initial support at 0.8529 (Sept 8 low) followed by the 0.8383 (61.8% retrace 0..9850-0.6009). Initial resistance is now at 0.8813 (Aug 22 2008 high) followed by 0.8943 (76.4% retrace 0.9850-0.6009).
Gold – 1003
Initial support at 992 (Sept 15 low) followed by 982 (Sept 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 1024 (Sept 17 high) followed by 1032 (Mar 18 2008 high).
