Oil higher, AUD still commanding
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 16th October (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was whippy in trading on Thursday mixed against a number of majors, and posted rebounds against XAU. On the data front the initial jobless claims fell by 10k to 514k, coinciding with 10 month lows whilst the big surprise was the US Empire manufacturing index expanding to 34 from 24 in October (five year highs). In U.S share markets the DJIA rose by 47 pt (0.5%) whilst the NASDAQ was also up by 0.1%.
The Euro (EUR) set fresh 2009 highs on Thursday of 1.4968 before falling on the back of declining Inflation figures (-0.3%) in the month of September adding to expectations that the ECB would hold rates. In his speech President Trichet stated that the Euro was not designed to be the Global Reserve currency and that the US should continue to endorse the dollar through its policies. Overall the Euro trade with a low of 1.4850 and a high of 1.4965 before closing the day at 1.4935.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) was pressured by risk sentiment and Asian equities rally with the Nikkei closing up by 176 points, which encouraged investors to flee out of the JPY and purchase high yielding. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.35 and a high of 90.75 before closing the day at 90.60.
The Sterling (GBP) was sharply higher as BoE Fischer suggested that a pause in the asset purchase program was eminent, greatly reducing odds that the BoE will extend in November. Overall the GBPUSD traded with a low of 1.5990 and a high of 1.6298 before closing the day at 1.6270.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) set new 14 month highs of 0.9271 once more in Asia on Friday on reported AUDJPY demand in Tokyo. On Thursday morning the RBA Governor Stevens was hawkish once more indicating that interest rates will move to more normal level as the economy recovers. The AUDUSD traded with a low of 0.9150 and a high of 0.9225 before closing the day at 0.9195
Oil & Gold (XAU) XAU fell on Thursday by as much as US$14.10 to US$1050.60 as a result of profit taking. Oil also fell by US$2.40 to US$77.58 a barrel a one year high.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.4674 |
1.4839 |
1.4950 |
1.4980 |
1.5000 |
|
USD/JPY |
87.13 |
88.01 |
90.65 |
91.63 |
92.53 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5708 |
1.5903 |
1.6373 |
1.6387 |
1.6468 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8866 |
0.8985 |
0.9255 |
0.9347 |
0.9476 |
|
XAU/USD |
1015.7 |
1036.9 |
1053.40 |
1070.80 |
1100.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
73.66 |
75.70 |
78.00 |
78.88 |
80.02 |
Euro – 1.4950
Initial support at 1.4839 (Oct 14 low) followed by 1.4674 (Oct 9 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4980 (Aug 13 2008 high) followed by 1.500 (Psych Level)
Yen – 90.65
Initial support is located at 88.01 (Oct 7 low) followed by 87.13 (Jan 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.63 (Sep 24 high) followed by 92.53 (Sept 21 high).
Pound – 1.6373
Initial support at 1.5903 (Oct 14 low) followed by 1.5708 (Oct 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6387 (Sep 24 high) followed by 1.6468 (Sep 23 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.9190
Initial support at 0.8985 (Oct 12 low) followed by the 0.8866 (Oct 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9347 (Aug 4 ’08 high) followed by 0.9637 (July 24 high).
Gold – 1053.40
Initial support at 1036.9 (Oct 7 low) followed by 1015.7 (Oct 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 1070.80 (14 Oct high) followed by 1100 (Psych Level).
Oil – 75.85
Initial support at 75.70 followed by 73.66.Initial resistance is now at 78.88 followed by 80.02
