Markets Consolidate Gains
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 11th November (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gained in Asia as profit taking set in but this proved short lived as stocks in the US eked out small gains to bring the rally into its 7th day. Little data was released but five Fed officials did speak throughout the day with the general message of prolonged low rates helping to support the market on dips. In US Stocks, DJIA +20 points closing at 10246, S& P +0 points closing at 1093 and NASDAQ -3 points closing at 2151. Looking ahead, Bank holiday for Veterans Day.
The Euro (EUR) struggled to hold above 1.5000 as profit taking in Asia and Oil losses in the US session capped gains. Support at 1.4950 emerged and the pair kept to a tight range for the rest of the day. EUR/JPY selling ahead of 135 Yen is also posing a challenge for the bulls. November German Zew Survey at 51.1 vs. 55 forecast. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4937 and a high of 1.5022 before closing at 1.4980. looking ahead, French Bank Holiday.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) kept to a very tight range around the 90 level as bouts of USD weakness was countered by fresh cross demand. Support at 89.70 is proving solid but attempts above the 90 level are equally short lived. AUD/JPY remains well supported with most of the volatility as usual seen on the GBP/JPY. October Current Account at 1568bn vs. 1530bn forecast. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.67 and a high of 90.21 before closing the day around 89.80 in the New York session. Looking ahead, September Machine Orders are forecast at 2.9% vs. 0.5% previously.
The Sterling (GBP) was shunted lower at the start of Europe on the back of a Fitch sovereign downgrade warning. The pair spent the rest of the day recovering off lows. September Trade Balance forecast at -6.1bn came in weaker at -7.194bn. EUR/GBP briefly popped above 0.9000 but later slipped back below the key handle. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6600 and a high of 1.6791 before closing the day at 1.6730 in the New York session. Looking ahead, October Claimant Count forecast at 20k vs. 20.8k previously. September ILO Unemployment forecast at 8.0% vs. 7.9% previously.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) consolidated Monday’s gains nicely with dips being well supported and risk appetite remaining strong. October NAB Business Confidence 16 vs. 14 previously. AUD/NZD is a cross in play with the pair trying to break through resistance at 1.2650 on route to the key 1.3000 level. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9254 and a high of 0.9326 before closing the US session at 0.9300. Looking ahead, November Consumer Confidence previously at 1.7%.
Oil & Gold (XAU) was quiet but closed above the $1100 level. Overall trading with a low of USD$1096 and high of USD$1109 before ending the New York session at USD$1103 an ounce. Came off on profit taking and the downgrading of storms threatening production. Crude Oil was down -$1.13 ending the New York session at $78.30.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.4811 |
1.4853 |
1.4975 |
1.5063 |
1.5163 |
|
USD/JPY |
89.20 |
89.62 |
89.75 |
90.86 |
91.32 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.6467 |
1.6519 |
1.6735 |
1.6843 |
1.7043 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.9092 |
0.9196 |
0.9295 |
0.9329 |
0.9476 |
|
XAU/USD |
1080.00 |
1087 |
1103.00 |
1111.00 |
1129.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
75.00 |
78.00 |
79.00 |
80.00 |
82.00 |
Euro – 1.4975
Initial support at 1.4853 (Nov 9 low) followed by 1.4811 (Nov 5 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5063 (Oct 26 high) followed by 1.5163 (0.764 retrace of 1.5063-1.4624)
Yen – 89.75
Initial support is located at 89.62 (Nov 6 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.86 (Nov 4 high) followed by 91.32 (Oct 29 high).
Pound – 1.6735
Initial support at 1.6519 (Nov 6 low) followed by 1.6467 (Nov 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6843 (Nov 9 high) followed by 1.7043 (Aug 5 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.9295
Initial support at 0.9196 (Nov 9 low) followed by the 0.9092 (Nov 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9329 (Oct 21 high) followed by 0.9476 (Jul 08 high).
Gold – 1103
Initial support at 1087 (Nov 6 low) followed by 1080 (Nov 4 high). Initial resistance is now at 1111 (Nov 9 high) followed by 1129 (1026.60 plus 0.618 of 905.10-1070.80).
Oil – 79.00
Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 75 (key Level). Initial resistance is now at 80 (Intraday resistance) followed by 82 (Oct High).
