Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 12/11/2009

Pound Hit by King’s comments

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 12th November (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) hit fresh lows on the dollar index breaking through 75 to fresh lows this year. Gold continued to edge higher in light trade with the US away. Stocks finished higher across the board but the USD did mange to bounce off lows with Pound losses leading the way. In US Stocks, DJIA +44 points closing at 10291, S&amp P +5 points closing at 1098 and NASDAQ +15 points closing at 2166. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless claims forecast at 510k vs. 512k previously. Also released, Crude Oil Inventories forecast at 1.1 vs. -4mn barrels.

The Euro (EUR) stayed in the upper range but a short foray into the 1.5040-50 region was quickly repelled with talk of heavy profit taking and central bank selling capping gains. With year highs close by the market is remaining quite long although should 1.5000 continue to contain they may get impatient. Support is located at 1.4950. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4952 and a high of 1.5050 before closing at 1.4980. looking ahead, September Industrial Production is forecast at 0.4% vs. 0.9% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) found strength in Asia after September Machine orders rose over 10% in a sign the worst of the financial crisis was over for the worlds second largest economy. USD/JPY slipped to 89.30 by early Europe before rallying hard with the crosses to test the key 90 Yen. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.27 and a high of 90.06 before closing the day around 89.85 in the New York session. Looking ahead, CGPI forecast at -0.1% in October.

The Sterling (GBP) was under heavy selling pressure as BoE Governor King was once again extremely dovish and left the door open for further expansion of the Asset Purchases program. Also hurting the GBP was his reiteration that a weak Pound would help the UK to an export led recovery. October Claimant Count forecast at 20k was better than expectations at 12.9k. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6534 and a high of 1.6801 before closing the day at 1.6560 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) hit year high above 0.9330 as US stocks traded at fresh year highs and the commodity currency tracked gold upwards. November Consumer Confidence was -2.5% as interest rate rises dampened the consumer mood. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9270 and a high of 0.9346 before closing the US session at 0.9290. Looking ahead, October Employment is forecast at -10k vs. 40k previously. The Unemployment Rate is forecast at 5.8% vs. 5.7% previously.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) continued the upwards trend for fresh year highs. Overall trading with a low of USD$1105 and high of USD$1119 before ending the New York session at USD$1117 an ounce. Ended higher but was rejected from the key $80 a barrel level. Crude Oil was down +0.23 ending the New York session at $79.30.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.4975

Initial support at 1.4939 (Nov 10 low) followed by 1.4853 (Nov 9 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5063 (Oct 26 high) followed by 1.5163 (0.764 retrace of 1.5063-1.4624)

Yen – 89.75

Initial support is located at 89.62 (Nov 6 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.86 (Nov 4 high) followed by 91.32 (Oct 29 high).

Pound – 1.6545

Initial support at 1.6519 (Nov 6 low) followed by 1.6467 (Nov 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6843 (Nov 9 high) followed by 1.7043 (Aug 5 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9285

Initial support at 0.9256 (Nov 10 low) followed by the 0.9196 (Nov 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9476 (July 31 08 high) followed by 0.9637 (Jul 31 high).

Gold – 1115

Initial support at 1095 (Nov 9 low) followed by 1087 (Nov 6 high). Initial resistance is now at 1129 (1026.60 plus 0.618 of 905.10-1070.80) followed by 1136 (1.618 retrace 930.34 – 1024.28 through 985).

Oil – 79.30

Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 75 (key Level). Initial resistance is now at 80 (Intraday resistance) followed by 82 (Oct High).