USD Weakness Resumes
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 16th November (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gave back most of the gains from Thursday as US stocks rebounded and Gold led the charge higher. US Trade deficit in September widened to -$36.5bn vs. -$31bn forecast. University of Michigan Consume Sentiment was also weaker at 66 vs. 70.6 previously. In US Stocks, DJIA +73 points closing at 10270, S& P +6 points closing at 1093 and NASDAQ +18 points closing at 2167. Looking ahead, September Business Inventories forecast at -0.6% vs. -1.5% previously.
The Euro (EUR) Found support and recovered through the day to finish above the 1.4900 figure. Risk was tentatively put back on throughout the day although EUR/JPY struggled as USD/JPY losses matched the EUR/USD gains. EU GDP was slightly less than forecast at 0.4% vs. 0.5% forecast. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4826 and a high of 1.4936 before closing at 1.4915. looking ahead, October EU inflation is forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.0% previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened against the USD and was well supported against most pairs with investors less keen to buy crosses into the weekend. The 90 Yen level has been the key figure in the market recently with buyers below and sellers above creating a very tight range. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.47 and a high of 90.41 before closing the day around 89.63 in the New York session. UPDATE Q3 GDP at 1.2% vs. 0.75 forecast.
The Sterling (GBP) rallied with the improvement in risk appetite after finding solid support inside the 1.65 figure on Thursday. The pair finished near 1.6700 with the EUR/GBP testing support at 0.8920 as the Pound recovery continued. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6572 and a high of 1.6705 before closing the day at 1.6690 in the New York session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied the most of the majors as gold recovered and the high yielding pair took advantage of strong sentiment towards the AUD after recent strong economic data. The pair is still strongly correlated with the stock markets but dips are finding solid support keeping the bias higher. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9225 and a high of 0.9343 before closing the US session at 0.9341.
Oil & Gold (XAU) opened under pressure but found support near $1100 and recovered for the rest of the day. Overall trading with a low of USD$1102 and high of USD$1119 before ending the New York session at USD$1118 an ounce. Continued to slump as demand came into question. Crude Oil was down -$0.59 ending the New York session at $76.35.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.4786 |
1.4822 |
1.4930 |
1.5048 |
1.5063 |
|
USD/JPY |
89.20 |
89.46 |
89.60 |
90.60 |
90.86 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.6519 |
1.6532 |
1.6710 |
1.6843 |
1.7043 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.9196 |
0.9211 |
0.9340 |
0.9370 |
0.9476 |
|
XAU/USD |
1087.00 |
1095 |
1125.00 |
1129.00 |
1136.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
74.00 |
75.00 |
76.80 |
78.00 |
80.00 |
Euro – 1.4930
Initial support at 1.4822 (Nov 12 low) followed by 1.4786 (0.618 OF 1.4624-1.5049). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5048 (Nov 11 high) followed by 1.5063 (Oct 26 high)
Yen – 89.60
Initial support is located at 89.46 (Nov 13 low) followed by 89.20 (Nov 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.60 (Nov 12 high) followed by 91.32 (Oct 29 high).
Pound – 1.6710
Initial support at 1.6516 (Nov 12 low) followed by 1.6402 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6843 (Nov 9 high) followed by 1.7043 (Aug 5 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.9340
Initial support at 0.9211 (Nov 12 low) followed by the 0.9196 (Nov 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9370 (Nov 12 High) followed by 0.9476 (Jul 31 ‘ 08 high).
Gold – 1125
Initial support at 1095 (Nov 9 low) followed by 1087 (Nov 6 high). Initial resistance is now at 1129 (1026.60 plus 0.618 of 905.10-1070.80) followed by 1136 (1.618 retrace 930.34 – 1024.28 through 985).
Oil – 76.80
Initial support at 75.00 (Key level) followed by 74 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 78 (Intraday resistance) followed by 80 (Key Level).
