Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 24/11/2009

Gold Leads Fresh Rally

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 24th November (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) strong data and a surge in Gold prices helped sellers of the USD push the pair lower against nearly all pairs. US October Existing Home Sales were 6.1Mln vs. 5.7Mln previously. Improved risk sentiment did allow USD/JPY to meek out some small gains. In US Stocks, DJIA +132 points closing at 10450, S&amp P +14 points closing at 1106 and NASDAQ +29 points closing at 2176. Looking ahead, Q3 GDP is forecast at 2.9% vs. 3.5% previously. Also released, November Consumer Confidence forecast 47.7.

The Euro (EUR) rallied hard from the open as stocks and gold gained in Asia. PMI data in Europe was strong with November Manufacturing at 51 and Services at 53.2. EUR/JPY gained over 1 yen to above 133 as US stocks extended gains to fresh year highs. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4867 and a high of 1.5001 before closing at 1.4965. Looking ahead, November German IFO Business Climate forecast at 92.5 vs. 91.9 previously. Also released, September Industrial Orders forecast at 0.8% vs. 2% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the Yen was on the back foot as USD/JPY traded above 89 and GBP/JPY led a cross rebound. With Japan away the usual Yen buyers were missing with some looking for Tuesday’s Nikkei session as the true test for direction. Medium term direction is unclear as Government comments have been mixed recently. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.56 and a high of 89.21 before closing the day around 88.95 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOJ monthly report released.

The Sterling (GBP) rallied hard from below 1.6500 as shorts from last week covered positions and GBP/JPY led a strong rebound. EUR/GBP struggled to fall below 0.9000 however as the Euro was also broadly strong. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6497 and a high of 1.6651 before closing the day at 1.6615 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BoE Inflation Report Hearings.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered well as the commodity currency took gold’s lead and continued to rally hard from Fridays lows. AUD/JPY also enjoyed success as did AUD/NZD which held above the 1.26 level comfortably. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9152 and a high of 0.9279 before closing the US session at 0.9245.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) was the major mover yesterday up over $20 an ounce in the US session on solid support from sentiment and central banks. Overall trading with a low of USD$1149 and high of USD$1174 before ending the New York session at USD$1163 an ounce. Struggled to hold gains with rallies still being sold. Crude Oil was up $0.09 ending the New York session at $77.56.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.4965

Initial support at 1.4802 (Nov 20 low) followed by 1.4786 (0.618 of 1.4624-1.5049). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5016 (Nov 16 high) followed by 1.5048 (Nov 11 high)

Yen – 88.95

Initial support is located at 88.36 (Oct 9 low) followed by 88.01 (Oct 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 89.19 (Nov 23 high) followed by 89.75 (Nov 16 high).

Pound – 1.6606

Initial support at 1.6461 (Nov 20 low) followed by 1.6402 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6676 (Nov 20 high) followed by 1.6750 (Nov 19 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9240

Initial support at 0.9061 (Nov 20 low) followed by the 0.8971 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9337 (Nov 18 high) followed by 0.9406 (Nov 16 high).

Gold – 1163

Initial support at 1132 (Nov 20 low) followed by 1127 (Nov 17 high). Initial resistance is now at 1173 (Nov 23 high) followed by 1177 (1.764 of 985 – 1070.80 from 1026.60).

Oil – 77.10

Initial support at 76.00 (Intraday support) followed by 75.00 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 78 (key level) followed by 80 (October high).