Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 26/11/2009

Gold Rush Continues

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 26th November (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) with the FOMC minutes confirming a low rate outlook for some time the market took this as a signal to sell the USD and during the day key levels were broken across the board whilst Gold continued to surge higher. October Durable Goods Orders were -0.6% vs. 2% previously. Also released, Weekly Jobless Claims at 455k vs. 501k previously. In US Stocks, DJIA +30 points closing at 10464, S&amp P +5 points closing at 1110 and NASDAQ +7 points closing at 2176. Looking ahead, Thanks Giving Holidays.

The Euro (EUR) Broke through the Key 1.5000 in late Asia and then kicked on to break major resistance and year highs at 1.5060 in the US session to finish the day at 1.5140. Broad USD weakness and strength in Gold and Oil helped underpin the move higher which opens up potential further gains. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4960 and a high of 1.5146 before closing at 1.5130. Looking ahead, October Private Loans are forecast at -0.5% vs. -0.3%.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) broke Key resistance at 88 Yen to break lower towards Year lows at 87.10. October Trade Balance was positive at 0.42T Yen vs. 0.06T Yen previously. Crosses were mixed as strength in the majors counted the USD/JPY move lower. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 87.19 and a high of 88.66 before closing the day around 87.30 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOJ Minutes released.

The Sterling (GBP) was very strong against the USD but mixed to weak against the Euro after Q3 GDP came in at expectations of -0.3%. EUR/GBP traded briefly below 0.9000 and GBP/JPY struggled to maintain ground. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6578 and a high of 1.6749 before closing the day at 1.6705 in the New York session. Looking ahead, November CBI distributive trades forecast at 13 vs. 8 previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) soared with gold from the start of Asia to end above the 0.9300 level and near year highs of 0.9406. AUD/JPY is the only cross struggling to gain as the Yen found strength and ignored the usual risk correlations. AUD/NZD trade above 1.27 in a continuation of recent strength. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9209 and a high of 0.9325 before closing the US session at 0.9320. Looking ahead, Q3 Capex forecast at 1.0 vs. 3.3% previously.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) broke to fresh highs testing $1190 by the end of the US session. Overall trading with a low of USD$1166 and high of USD$1193 before ending the New York session at USD$1190 an ounce. Gained heavily on USD weakness after having under performed recently. Crude Oil was down +$1.94 ending the New York session at $77.96.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.5125

Initial support at 1.4889 (Nov 24 low) followed by 1.4833 (Nov 23 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5163 (0.764 of 1.6038-1.2330) followed by 1.5285 (May 08 08 low)

Yen – 87.40

Initial support is located at 88.13 (Jan 21 low) followed by 87.00 (Psychological Level). Initial resistance is now at 88.63 (Nov 25 high) followed by 89.19 (Nov 23 high).

Pound – 1.6700

Initial support at 1.6498 (Nov 24 low) followed by 1.6461 (Nov 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6750 (Nov 19 high) followed by 1.6878 (Nov 16 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.9285

Initial support at 0.9112 (Nov 23 low) followed by the 0.9061 (Nov 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9337 (Nov 18 high) followed by 0.9406 (Nov 16 high).

Gold – 1190

Initial support at 1153 (Nov 23 low) followed by 1132 (Nov 20 high). Initial resistance is now at 1200 (Key level) followed by 1250 (Key level).

Oil – 77.60

Initial support at 77 (Intraday support) followed by 75.00 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 78 (intraday resistance) followed by 80 (Key level).