Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 21/12/2009

December 21, 2009

EUR/CHF Testing the Swiss National Bank’s Resolve

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 21st December (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) bouts of strength were seen throughout the day with EUR/USD breaking below 1.4300 and USD/JPY pushing higher into the Y90’s. Other currencies were mixed with risk improving throughout the day and commodities bouncing off lows. DJIA +20 points closing at 10328, S&amp P +6 points closing at 1102 and NASDAQ +31 points closing at 2211.

The Euro (EUR) the market was still looking to sell rallies with a relief rally in Asia been sold back in the US session as traders looked to break the 1.4300 level. Once the level broke there was little follow through and the pair rallied off lows once again. Some focus still remains on Greece as they try and tackle a burgeoning debt crisis. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4262 and a high of 1.4411 before closing at 1.4340.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) closed above 90 in a very bullish tone after repelling the Y89 level aggressively in Asia. AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY led the rebound as the market turns more bearish on the medium term outlook of the Yen. The BOJ held at 0.1% as expected. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.96 and a high of 90.91 before closing the day around 90.28 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) was a little more volatile than usual breaking to the downside in New York below 1.6100. GBP/JPY buying and strong Oil helped the pair to rally earlier in the day. Major Medium term support is seen in the 1.5950-1.6050 zone. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6053 and a high of 1.6249 before closing the day at 1.6140 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was well supported after suffering major losses during the weak with bargain hunters in the low 0.88’s helping propel the Aussie back above 0.8900. The short USD trade in recent months was a major reason why the AUD has been so supported and the unwinding is hurting the pair more then most. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8812 and a high of 0.8911 before closing the US session at 0.8904.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) reclaimed $1110 in a bullish day for the heavily beaten back precious metal. Overall trading with a low of USD$1097 and high of USD$1117 before ending the New York session at USD$1112 an ounce. Was Buoyant on IRAQ/IRAN border tensions. Crude Oil was down +$0.71 ending the New York session at $73.36.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4178

1.4262

1.4335

1.4536

1.4591

USD/JPY

88.20

88.58

90.40

90.91

91.32

GBP/USD

1.5903

1.5973

1.6140

1.6411

1.6516

AUD/USD

0.8647

0.8760

0.8905

0.9011

0.9070

XAU/USD

1080.00

1095

1116.00

1141.00

1147.00

OIL/USD

70.00

72.50

74.50

75.00

76.00

Euro – 1.4335

Initial support at 1.4262 (Dec 18 low) followed by 1.4178 (Sept 1 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4536 (Dec 17 high) followed by 1.4591 (Dec 16 high)

Yen – 90.40

Initial support is located at 88.58 (Dec 15 low) followed by 88.20 (Dec 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.91 (Dec 17 high) followed by 91.32 (Nov 4 High).

Pound – 1.6140

Initial support at 1.5973 (Oct 15 low) followed by 1.5903 (Oct 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6411 (Dec 16 high ) followed by 1.6516 (Dec 7 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.8905

Initial support at 0.8760 (Oct 6 low) followed by the 0.8647 (Oct 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9011 (Dec 17 high) followed by 0.9070 (Dec 16 high).

Gold – 1116

Initial support at 1095 (Nov 17 low) followed by 1084 (Nov 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1141 (Dec 17 high) followed by 1147 (Dec 9 high) .

Oil – 74.50

Initial support at 72.50 (Intraday support) followed by 70.00 (Intraday support). Initial resistance is now at 75.00 (Key Psychological Level) followed by 76.00 (Intraday resistance).

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