‘Risk On’ for First day of the New Year
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 5th January (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) lost ground against most currencies as the market relapsed into Strong stocks/Weak Dollar mode again on the first day of trading in 2010. December ISM Manufacturing jumped to 55.9 vs. 54 forecast in a sign the manufacturing sector in the US is recovering well. DJIA +155 points closing at 10583, S& P +17 points closing at 1132 and NASDAQ +39 points closing at 2308. Looking ahead, November Pending Home sales forecast at -2% vs. 3.7% previously.
The Euro (EUR) rebounded from Asian selling but stayed within familiar ranges as the topside resistance at 1.4450 held firm. EUR/GBP had a good session as traders took some profit from the recent Pound rally. EUR/JPY remained buoyant after testing the downside in Asia to close above the Y133 level. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4257 and a high of 1.4457 before closing at 1.4420. Looking ahead, December Unemployment Rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 8.1% whilst the Unemployment Change is seen at 5k vs. -7k previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) was weaker against commodity currencies but stronger against the USD as broad USD weakness saw the recent rally stall above the Y93 level. AUD/JPY was especially strong gaining above Y84 and targeting in on the 2009 highs at Y85. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 92.18 and a high of 93.23 before closing the day around 92.50 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) was surprisingly weak after failing to break above 1.6250 resistance the pair slipped back to the 1.6100 support level. Most of the crosses fell as well with the 2010 UK economic outlook weighing on the Pound. December Manufacturing PMI improved to 54.1 vs. 51.8 previously. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6056 and a high of 1.6244 before closing the day at 1.6090 in the New York session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) had a very bullish start to 2010 with the Commodity currency tracking Gold and Oil higher. EUR/AUD traded at 2 year lows below 1.5800 and AUD/JPY extended impressive gains from last weeks trading. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8937 and a high of 0.9139 before closing the US session at 0.9125.
Oil & Gold (XAU) made impressive gains breaking to the topside. Overall trading with a low of USD$1092 and high of USD$1124 before ending the New York session at USD$1121 an ounce. Geopolitical Concerns and strong risk appetite help Crude Oil rally above the key $80 a barrel level. Crude Oil was up $2.15 ending the New York session at $81.51.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.4218 |
1.4234 |
1.4415 |
1.4458 |
1.4481 |
|
USD/JPY |
91.41 |
91.91 |
92.50 |
93.30 |
93.57 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5984 |
1.6049 |
1.6100 |
1.6241 |
1.6248 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8857 |
0.8902 |
0.9130 |
0.9137 |
0.9195 |
|
XAU/USD |
1074.00 |
1086 |
1120.00 |
1141 |
1147.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
79.10 |
80.00 |
81.50 |
82.00 |
85.00 |
Euro – 1.4415
Initial support at 1.4234 (Dec 24 low) followed by 1.4218 (Dec 22 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4458 (Dec 29 high) followed by 1.4481 (Oct 2 former low)
Yen – 92.50
Initial support is located at 91.91 (Dec 30 low) followed by 91.41 (Dec 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 93.30 (Sept 7 high) followed by 93.57 (Aug 31 High).
Pound – 1.6100
Initial support at 1.6049 (Dec 31 low) followed by 1.5984 (76.4% of 1.5708 – 1.6878). Initial resistance is now at 1.6241 (Jan 4 high) followed by 1.6248 (Dec 18 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.9130
Initial support at 0.8902 (Dec 30 low) followed by the 0.8857 (Dec 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9137 (Jan 1 high) followed by 0.9195 (Dec 11 high).
Gold – 1120
Initial support at 1086 (Dec 30 low) followed by 1074 (Dec 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 1141 (Dec 17 high) followed by 1147 (Dec 9 high).
Oil – 81.50
Initial support at 80 (Major level) followed by 79.10 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 82.00 (November 2009 High) followed by 85 (Major level).
