Dollar Back Under Pressure
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –15th January (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) weak Retail Sales left the dollar offered against most of the majors especially as the stock market shrugged off the data and continued to track higher. December Retail Sales were at -0.3% vs. 0.5% previously. Weekly Jobless Claims were at 444k vs. 437k forecast. DJIA +29 points closing at 10710, S& P +2 points closing at 1148 and NASDAQ +8 points closing at 2316. Looking ahead, December Core CPI is forecast at 0.1% vs. 0.0% previously. Also released, December Industrial Output forecast at 0.6% vs. 0.8% previously.
The Euro (EUR) remained inside the defined weekly trading range as the ECB held rates at 1.0% and President Trichet was quite Dovish in his outlook for the Eurozone. This countered the weak USD and the pair ended at the key 1.4500 level. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4445 and a high of 1.4558 before closing at 1.4500. Looking ahead, December EU inflation is forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.1% m/m.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) was very weak in Asia and Europe as the crosses lead the way higher for the USD/JPY. Weak US Data sent the USD/JPY from Y92 to below Y91. November Machine Orders plummeted -11.3% vs. 0.2% forecast. AUD/JPY was very well supported as risk appetite continued to improve. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 90.82 and a high of 92.07 before closing the day around 91.20 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) the recent rally continued with resistance at 1.6300 breached but substantial gains were not seen as profit taking setting in. EUR/GBP continued to track lower with the pair breaching the .8900 support level. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6248 and a high of 1.6350 before closing the day at 1.6335 in the New York session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) was the leader against the USD with the market reacting positively to the extremely strong Jobs Data. December Employment Change was +35k vs. +10k forecast and the Unemployment Rate dropped to 5.5% vs. 5.7% previously. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9214 and a high of 0.9333 before closing the US session at 0.9310.
Oil & Gold (XAU) the dips continued to be bought and fresh highs were made during the day. Overall trading with a low of USD$1130 and high of USD$1147 before ending the New York session at USD$1142 an ounce. Struggled to gain traction and break above the key $80 level. Crude Oil was down -$0.26 ending the New York session at $79.39.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.4409 |
1.4454 |
1.4500 |
1.4579 |
1.4591 |
|
USD/JPY |
90.73 |
90.91 |
91.20 |
92.42 |
92.66 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.6038 |
1.6137 |
1.6335 |
1.6341 |
1.6411 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.9124 |
0.9171 |
0.9315 |
0.9406 |
0.9476 |
|
XAU/USD |
1115.00 |
1119 |
1142.00 |
1161 |
1168.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
78.00 |
78.50 |
79.40 |
80.00 |
82.00 |
Euro – 1.4500
Initial support at 1.4454 (Jan 12 low) followed by 1.4409 (Jan 11 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4579 (Jan 13 high) followed by 1.4591 (Dec 16 high)
Yen – 91.20
Initial support is located at 90.91 (Jan 13 low) followed by 90.73 (Jan 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 92.42 (Jan 12 high) followed by 92.66 (Jan 11 high).
Pound – 1.6335
Initial support at 1.6137 (Jan 13 low) followed by 1.6038 ( Jan 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6341 (Jan 11 high) followed by 1.6411 (Jan 16 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.9315
Initial support at 0.9171 (Jan 12 low) followed by the 0.9124 (Jan 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9406 (Nov 16 high) followed by 0.9476 (July 31 08 high).
Gold – 1142
Initial support at 1119 (Jan 13 low) followed by 1115 (Jan 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1161 (Jan 11 high) followed by 1168 (0.618 of 1226.56-1074.88).
Oil – 79.40
Initial support at 78.50 (Intraday support) followed by 78.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 80.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 82.00 (Intraday Resistance).
