Relief Rally Halts Decline
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 2nd February (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) opened the week strong in Asia but lost ground gradually across the day as sentiment improved and stocks rallied off lows around the world. Helping sentiment was the large jump in January ISM Manufacturing to 58.2 vs. 55.2 previously. DJIA +118 points closing at 10185, S& P +15 points closing at 1089 and NASDAQ +23 points closing at 2171. Looking ahead, December Pending Home Sales are forecast at 1% vs. -16% previously.
The Euro (EUR) bounced away from 1.3850 support to reclaim 1.3900 in the US session as EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP continued to rebound. Jan Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 52.4 vs. 52.0 previously. Sentiment towards the Euro will be directly linked with the ongoing Greece saga. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3850 and a high of 1.3940 before closing at 1.3920.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) like the Dollar the Yen weakened across the board as risk appetite picked up off lows and USD/JPY ground higher. AUD/JPY reclaimed Y80 ahead of the RBA meeting today and was helped out by Chinese PMI remaining as fast expansionary pace. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.76 and a high of 90.97 before closing the day around 90.60 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) trailed the recovery as Europe sold the pair below 1.5900 before strong US data and stocks helped the pair rebound. GBP/JPY tested Y143 but rallied in the US session to close just under the key Y145 level. January PMI forecast at 56.7 vs. 54 forecast. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5849 and a high of 1.5982 before closing the day at 1.5960 in the New York session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) concerns that the RBA may not raise rates hurt the sentiment towards the AUD early in the day but as stocks around the world picked up and commodities staged major rallies the Aussie came back into demand and reclaimed the 0.8900 level. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8876 and a high of 0.8926 before closing the US session at 0.8915. Looking ahead, RBA Rate announcement forecast to hike 0.25% to 4.0% vs. 3.75% previously.
Oil & Gold (XAU) rallied sharply above $1000 in a very bullish move after weeks of testing the downside. Overall trading with a low of USD$1076 and high of USD$1108 before ending the New York session at USD$1106 an ounce. Crude Oil jumped $2 a barrel on bargain hunter demand. Crude Oil was up +$1.98 ending the New York session at $74.87.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3749 |
1.3833 |
1.3920 |
1.3988 |
1.4053 |
|
USD/JPY |
89.14 |
89.59 |
90.80 |
90.93 |
91.88 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5708 |
1.5833 |
1.5944 |
1.6179 |
1.6312 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8735 |
0.8783 |
0.8920 |
0.8962 |
0.9048 |
|
XAU/USD |
1070.00 |
1074 |
1105.00 |
1110 |
1117.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
72.50 |
74.00 |
74.80 |
75.00 |
77.00 |
Euro – 1.3920
Initial support at 1.3833 (Jul 8 low) followed by 1.3749 (Jun 16 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3988 (Jan 29 high) followed by 1.4053 (Jan 28 high)
Yen – 90.80
Initial support is located at 89.59 (Jan 29 low) followed by 89.14 (Jan 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.92 (Jan 22 high) followed by 91.87 (Jan 21 high).
Pound – 1.5944
Initial support at 1.5833 (Dec 30 low) followed by 1.5708 (Oct 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6179 (Jan 29 low) followed by 1.6312 (Jan 21 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.8920
Initial support at 0.8793 (Dec 24 low) followed by the 0.8735 (Dec 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8962 (Jan 29 high) followed by 0.9048 (Jan 28 high).
Gold – 1105
Initial support at 1074 (Dec 22 low) followed by 1070 (Oct 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 1110 (previous support) followed by 1117 (Jan 21 high).
Oil – 74.8
Initial support at 74.00 (Intraday support) followed by 72.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 75.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 77.00 (Intraday Resistance).
