Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 08/02/2010

US Jobs Numbers Disappoint

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 8th February (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) continued on its recent strengthening run as stock markets fell further on Friday with the US jobs report doing little to instill fresh investor confidence. January NonFarm Payrolls fell -20k vs. 5k forecast. January Unemployment Rate did fall however to 9.7% from 10.0% as people stopped looking for work. In US stocks DJIA +10 points closing at 10012, S&amp P +3 points closing at 1066 and NASDAQ +15 points closing at 2141. Looking ahead, January Employment Trend previously at 91.8.

The Euro (EUR) fell not only to USD strength but ongoing European debt concerns in Spain, Portugal and Greece. German Industrial Output fell -2.6% vs. 0.6% previously. EUR/JPY also fell to 8 month lows near Y120 before bouncing into the end of the day on speculation the EU would be forced into some form of bailout for its troubled members. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3586 and a high of 1.3746 before closing at 1.3652. Looking ahead, February Sentix forecast at -3.2% vs. -3.7% previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) tested multimonth highs against the EUR and GBP as the safe haven currency enjoyed broad-based support. USD/JPY found solid support below Y89 but likewise found solid resistance close to the key Y90 level. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.84 and a high of 89.89 before closing the day around 89.33 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) was under pressure for most of the day falling at one stage into the 1.55’s before staging a small recovery into the close. Very Weak Oil is weighing on the risk sensitive currency as is GBP/JPY selling which pushed through Y140 support. January PPI was at 2.0% vs. 0.6% forecast m/m. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5560 and a high of 1.5775 before closing the day at 1.5623 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) the commodity currency was able to hold ground better than most as the recent selling was seen as overdone and spent most of the day in a tight range. A brief trip in the US session below 0.8600 found solid buyers and helped the pair close on a firmer footing. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8578 and a high of 0.8717 before closing the US session at 0.8660.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) staged a $15 bounce off the $1050 level to end on a strong note. Overall trading with a low of USD$1045 and high of USD$1068 before ending the New York session at USD$1065 an ounce. The rout continued as Oil traders fretted on the Global economic outlook. Crude Oil was down $-1.94 ending the New York session at $71.19.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.3645

Initial support at 1.3584 (May 20 low) followed by 1.3531 (May 19 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3903 (Feb 4 high) followed by 1.4026 (Feb 3 high)

Yen – 89.30

Initial support is located at 88.56 (Feb 4 low) followed by 88.20 (Dec 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 89.79 (0.236 of 93.77-88.56) followed by 90.55 (0.382 of 93.77-88.56).

Pound – 1.5600

Initial support at 1.5517 (May 17 low) followed by 1.5450 (May 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5918 (Feb 4) followed by 1.6069 (Feb 3 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.8665

Initial support at 0.8608 (Feb 4 low) followed by the 0.8570 (Oct 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8778 (0.382 of 0.9328-0.8608) followed by 0.8883 (0.382 of 0.9328-0.8608).

Gold – 1067

Initial support at 1041 (Nov 2 low) followed by 1035 (Oct 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1073 (Jan 28 low) followed by 1111 (Feb 4 high).

Oil – 71.70

Initial support at 70.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 69.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 72.50 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 75.00 (Intraday Resistance).