Gold Breaks Above $1100
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 16th February (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was little changed in a quiet day of trading keeping to tight ranges against most currencies. US was on Holiday for President’s Day and China was also away for the New Year celebrations. Looking ahead, December Long term TIC flows forecast at 50bn vs. 126bn previously. Also released, NAHB Housing Market Index forecast 16 vs. 15.
The Euro (EUR) the market is focusing on the EU finance Ministers meeting for more details on Greece support. The EUR/USD pivoted the 1.3600 for most of the day but was very quiet. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3578 and a high of 1.3636 before closing at 1.3600. Looking ahead, EU Finance Ministers Meeting Statement expected. Also released, February German ZEW survey forecast at 42.5 vs. 47.2 previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded in a very tight range on the USD/JPY around the Y90 level but is starting to build support below the key level. Supporting risk in the Asian session was better than expected Q4 GDP at 1.1% vs. 0.9% forecast Q/Q. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.90 and a high of 90.25 before closing the day around 90.05 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Chinese holidays continue.
The Sterling (GBP) had the widest trading range of the majors with support in the lower 1.5600 area tested before resistance above 1.5700 later in Europe. GBP/JPY is building support below Y141 but is still contained by resistance at Y141.50. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5610 and a high of 1.5723 before closing the day at 1.5665 in the New York session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) found support on dips from a strong performance in Gold overnight and positive stocks in Europe. Resistance above 0.8900 is containing for now whilst the market waits for speeches from RBA Stevens and Debelle later this week. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8846 and a high of 0.8912 before closing the US session at 0.8895. Looking ahead, February RBA meeting minutes released.
Oil & Gold (XAU) was a solid performer testing and closing above the key $1100 level. Overall trading with a low of USD$1091 and high of USD$1103 before ending the New York session at USD$1101 an ounce. Oil was little changed with the US away. Crude Oil was down -$0.13 ending the New York session at $74.00.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3423 |
1.3531 |
1.3600 |
1.3801 |
1.3839 |
|
USD/JPY |
88.83 |
89.15 |
90.05 |
90.55 |
91.08 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5536 |
1.5560 |
1.5670 |
1.5776 |
1.5888 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8710 |
0.8750 |
0.8890 |
0.8921 |
0.8962 |
|
XAU/USD |
1061.00 |
1078 |
1099.00 |
1111 |
1125.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
70.00 |
72.50 |
74.10 |
75.00 |
77.00 |
Euro – 1.3600
Initial support at 1.3531 (May 19 low) followed by 1.3424 (May 18 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3801 (Feb 11 high) followed by 1.3839 (Feb 9 high)
Yen – 90.05
Initial support is located at 89.15 (Feb 8 low) followed by 88.83 (Feb 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.55 (0.382 of 93.77-88.56) followed by 91.08 (Feb 4 high).
Pound – 1.5670
Initial support at 1.5560 (Feb 11 low) followed by 1.5536 (Feb 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5776 (Feb 5 high) followed by 1.5888 (0.382 of 1.6458-1.5536).
Australian Dollar – 0.8890
Initial support at 0.8750 (Feb 11 low) followed by the 0.8710 (Feb 10 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8921 (Feb 2 high) followed by 0.8962 (Jan 29 high).
Gold – 1099
Initial support at 1078 (Feb 12 low) followed by 1061 (Feb 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 1111 (Feb 4 high) followed by 1125 (Feb 3 high).
Oil – 74.10
Initial support at 72.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 70.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 75.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 77.00 (Intraday Resistance).
