Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 04/03/2010

Greece Austerity Measures Help Euro

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 4th March (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the market reacted well to the new Greece Austerity measures in Europe and the Euro led the majors higher against the greenback. Adding to the positive sentiment was the February ISM Services PMI at 53 vs. 51 forecast. February ADP Employment report was a relief at -20k as forecast. In US stocks, DJIA -9 points closing at 10396, S&amp P +1 points closing at 1118 and NASDAQ -1 points closing at 2280. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 470k vs. 496k previously. January Factory Orders are forecast at 1.8% vs. 1.0% previously. Finally, January Pending Home Sales are forecast at 1%.

The Euro (EUR) with over $6bn in new budget cuts announced from Greece the market took another leg higher breaking above resistance at 1.3700. EUR/GBP was volatile as the market rejected 0.9100 and Pound found strength on good data. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3591 and a high of 1.3737 before closing at 1.3700. Looking ahead, ECB Rate Announcement forecast to remain at 1.0%.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) Euro inspired USD weakness hurt the major as it broke below support at 88.50 and the gradual decline continued. Crosses held their ground and most finished with small gains. AUD/JPY continues to hold above Y80 and is one of the most closely watch trades for overall investor risk appetite. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.30 and a high of 89.02 before closing the day around 88.45 in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) broke above 1.5000 in Asia as the recovery continued and Europe continued with the theme as Economic data impressed. February Services PMI jumped to 58 vs 55. Also strong, February Nationwide Consumer Confidence at 80 vs. 71 previously. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4974 and a high of 1.5134 before closing the day at 1.5100 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOE rate Announcement.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was quiet as profit taking on the major in the high 0.90’s capped gains and traders looked to the crosses for action. AUD/NZD broke to fresh decade highs above 1.3000 and quickly ran up to the 1.31 level. Q4 GDP came in at 0.9% q/q as forecast. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9007 and a high of 0.9088 before closing the US session at 0.9035. Looking ahead, January Trade Balance is forecast at -1.5bn vs. -2.25bn.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) took advantage of USD weakness to trade above $1140 for the first time since January. Overall trading with a low of USD$1131 and high of USD$1145 before ending the New York session at USD$1139 an ounce. Crude Oil broke above $80 on Bullish US inventories data. Crude Oil was up +$1.27 ending the New York session at $80.95.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.3705

Initial support at 1.3436 (Mar 2 low) followed by 1.3424 (may 18 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3692 (Feb 23 high) followed by 1.3788 (Feb 17 high)

Yen – 88.45

Initial support is located at 88.25 (0.618 of 84.83-93.77) followed by 87.37 (Dec 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 89.50 (Feb 26 high) followed by 90.36 (Feb 23 high).

Pound – 1.5100

Initial support at 1.4855 (Mar 2 low) followed by 1.4784 (Mar 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5209 (Mar 1 high) followed by 1.5317 (Feb 26 low).

Australian Dollar – 0.9055

Initial support at 0.8936 (Mar 1 low) followed by the 0.8863 (Feb 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9093 (Jan 25 high) followed by 0.9147 (Jan 21 high).

Gold – 1139

Initial support at 1111 (Mar 1low) followed by 1104 (Feb 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1146 (Jan 14 high) followed by 1161 (Jan 11 high).

Oil – 80.80

Initial support at 80.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 78.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 82.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 82.50 (Intraday Resistance).