Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 08/03/2010

US Jobs bring upside surprise

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 8th March (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was strong initially after the February Payrolls beat expectations at -36k vs. -56k forecast. The gains were short lived however as stock markets extended gains and yen crosses staged major short covering rallies. Also of note, February Consumer Credit turned positive at 5bn vs. -4.2bn forecast. In US stocks, DJIA +122 points closing at 10566, S&amp P +15 points closing at 1138 and NASDAQ +34 points closing at 2326.

The Euro (EUR) tested the lower 1.35 region immediately after the Jobs figures were released before rebounding in the US close on EUR/JPY buying and a strong rally in Oil. January Factory orders jumped 1.7% vs. 1.4% forecast. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3529 and a high of 1.3629 before closing at 1.3624. Looking ahead, March Sentix forecast at -9 vs. -8.2 previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was the major loser in the post NFP rally as the market heavily long the Yen liquidated positions. GBP/JPY led the crosses higher as USD/JPY reclaimed the key Y90 level and US stock markets rose to fresh year highs. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.99 and a high of 90.58 before closing the day around 90.30 in the New York session. Looking ahead, January Current account forecast at 1.25T vs. 1.1T previously.

The Sterling (GBP) like the Euro tested the downside after the NFP figures although support under the 1.5000 proved solid and GBP/JPY soared. EUR/GBP tested the Key 0.9000 level and closed just below the figure but the GBP outlook is quite uncertain as ongoing hung elections fears remain in play. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4994 and a high of 1.5166 before closing the day at 1.5144 in the New York session. Looking ahead, MPC member Barker speaks.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) did well in the ‘risk on’ environment but stalled at the 0.9080 resistance area as AUD/NZD selling capped the Aussies gains. NZD/USD outperformed the major currencies gaining 3% against the Yen. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8986 and a high of 0.9092 before closing the US session at 0.9080.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) kept inside Thursday’s range tracking the USD strength and weakness. Some analysts are uncertain as to whether a rebound in the Euro on calming Greece fears will play out well for gold as recent gains have been attributed in part to sovereign risk. Overall trading with a low of USD$1127 and high of USD$1141 before ending the New York session at USD$1135 an ounce. Crude Oil rallied with improvement in global economic outlook. Crude Oil was up +$1.58 ending the New York session at $81.70.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.3630

Initial support at 1.3552 (Mar 4 low) followed by 1.3436 (Mar 2 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3736 (Mar 3 high) followed by 1.3788 (Feb 17 high)

Yen – 90.40

Initial support is located at 87.74 (Dec 10 low) followed by 87.37 (Dec 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.96 (0.5 of 93.77-88.14) followed by 91.90 (Feb 22 high).

Pound – 1.5130

Initial support at 1.4959 (Mar 3 low) followed by 1.4855 (Mar 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5136 (Mar 4 high) followed by 1.5209 (Mar 1 low).

Australian Dollar – 0.9070

Initial support at 0.8979 (Mar 4 low) followed by the 0.8936 (Mar 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9086 (Mar 3 high) followed by 0.9147 (Jan 21 high).

Gold – 1135

Initial support at 1125 (Mar 4 low) followed by 1111 (Mar 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 1144 (Mar 3 high) followed by 1161 (Jan 11 high).

Oil – 81.80

Initial support at 80.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 78.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 82.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 82.50 (Intraday Resistance).