USD Gains on Greece Flare Up
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 19th March (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was strong across the board on the weak Euro news and US discount rate hike rumor. Weekly Jobless Claims improved to 457k vs. 462k previously and US CPI was 0.0% in February. In US stocks, DJIA +45 points closing at 10779, S& P -1 points closing at 1165 and NASDAQ +2 points closing at 2391.
The Euro (EUR) was hurt comments from a Greece official at the start of Europe that the IMF may be looked to for support as EU commitments so far have fallen short of financial support. EUR/USD broke below 1.3700 on the news and was heavy for the rest of the day finally coming to rest at 1.3600. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3585 and a high of 1.3741 before closing at 1.3610. Looking ahead, German PPI is forecast at 0.1% vs. 0.8% m/m.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) risk aversion sent the USD/JPY through Y90 in Early Europe before solid buying was found and the pair rallied 100 pips to 90.80 on US discount rate rumors. EUR/JPY was weak on the Greece News but strong stocks kept most other pairs buoyant and near highs. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.74 and a high of 90.83 before closing the day around 90.50 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) mixed data and and a stronger USD forced the Pound to give up Wednesday’s gains and the pair slipped back to lower 1.52 support. Public Debt increased by 12.4b vs. 14.6b forecast. February CBI orders slipped -37 vs. -33 forecast. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5215 and a high of 1.5331 before closing the day at 1.5250 in the New York session. Looking ahead, MPC Tucker Speaks.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) pivoted the 0.9200 level as AUD/JPY buying offset the USD strength. Support at 0.9180 was solid on the downside and Euro weakness saw fresh EUR/AUD lows under 1.4800. Sentiment towards the AUD is decidedly bullish and some analysts are beginning to talk about Parity again as the USD/CAD approaches the major level. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9178 and a high of 0.9236 before closing the US session at 0.9210.
Oil & Gold (XAU) was well supported on the sovereign debt risk posed by Greece. Overall trading with a low of USD$1117 and high of USD$1130 before ending the New York session at USD$1127 an ounce. Crude Oil fell back as profits were taken on the recent rally. Crude Oil was down $0.73 ending the New York session at $82.20.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3531 |
1.3587 |
1.3605 |
1.3818 |
1.3839 |
|
USD/JPY |
89.27 |
89.63 |
90.35 |
90.80 |
91.09 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4979 |
1.5209 |
1.5240 |
1.5382 |
1.5477 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.9096 |
0.9174 |
0.9200 |
0.9252 |
0.9280 |
|
XAU/USD |
1108.00 |
1118 |
1125.00 |
1133 |
1144.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
78.00 |
80 |
82.10 |
83.2 |
85.00 |
Euro – 1.3605
Initial support at 1.3587 (Mar 15 low) followed by 1.3531 (Mar 11 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3818 (Feb 9 high) followed by 1.3839 (Feb 4 high)
Yen – 90.35
Initial support is located at 89.63 (Mar 16 low) followed by 89.27 (Mar 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.80 (Mar 16 high) followed by 91.09 (Mar 12 high).
Pound – 1.5240
Initial support at 1.5209 (Mar 17 low) followed by 1.4979 (Mar 16 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5382 (Mar 17 high) followed by 1.5477 (Feb 24 low).
Australian Dollar – 0.9200
Initial support at 0.9174 (Mar 17 low) followed by the 0.9096 (Mar 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9252 (Mar 17 high) followed by 0.9280 (Jan 18 high).
Gold – 1125
Initial support at 1118 (Mar 18 low) followed by 1108 (Mar 16). Initial resistance is now at 1133 (Mar 18 high) followed by 1144 (Mar 3 high).
Oil – 82.10
Initial support at 80.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 78.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 83.20 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 85.00 (March High).
