Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 15/04/2010

US Retail Sales Rebound

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 15th April (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was unable to gain on the back of strong March Retail Sales as Fed Chief Bernanke remained dovish in his testimony to congress. March Retail Sales jumped 1.6% vs. 1.1% forecast. Bernanke repeated the ‘extended period’ remark in relation to US interest rates remaining low. In US stocks, DJIA +103 points closing at 11123, S&amp P +13 points closing at 1210 and NASDAQ +38 points closing at 2504. looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 440k vs. 460k previously and March Industrial Output is forecast at +0.7% vs. +0.1% previously.

The Euro (EUR) dipped after the strong US data but found solid support under 1.3600 to rebound and test 1.3680 after Bernanke’s comments. With the Greece receding into the background for now, the market will focusing more attention on respective economic fundamentals of the major economies. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3594 and a high of 1.3680 before closing at 1.3655.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) as the Yen weakness due to the DPJ Y120 report faded the market focused on Bernanke’s comments and sent the Yen under Y93 briefly before solid cross buying once again lifted the major to finish roughly unchanged. EUR/JPY tested resistance above Y127.60 but was unable to hold gains and slipped back to the lower Y127 region. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 92.81 and a high of 93.74 before closing the day around 93.25 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Chinese GDP is forecast at 11.8% vs. 10.7% previously.

The Sterling (GBP) continued to rally throughout the day as EUR/GBP selling and GBP/JPY buying helped Cable outperform. Resistance at 1.5500 is expected to be strong and will be a good test of the bulls resolve. UK Polls continue to be mixed with the Conservatives lead fluctuating. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5375 and a high of 1.5494 before closing the day at 1.5475 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March Consumer Confidence is forecast at 81 vs. 80 previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was the strongest currency in play yesterday as Oil led commodities higher and general risk appetite combined with USD weakness to push the AUD/USD through resistance at 0.9330. The sell-off seen on Monday/Tuesday seems to be behind us and the market is now focusing on key multi-year highs at 0.9406 and Chinese data. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9221 and a high of 0.9297 before closing the US session at 0.9280.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) tracked Oil higher but struggled to hold gains. Overall trading with a low of USD$1149 and high of USD$1162 before ending the New York session at USD$1155 an ounce. Crude Rallied aggressively after weekly US inventory data showed an unexpected draw-down. WTI Oil Closed +$1.79 at $85.85 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.3650

Initial support at 1.3500 (Apr 9 high) followed by 1.3341 (Apr 9 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3741 (Mar 18 high) followed by 1.3819 (Mar 17 high)

Yen – 93.25

Initial support is located at 92.58 (April 13 low) followed by 92.25 (0.382 of 88.14-94.79). Initial resistance is now at 93.77 (Apr 9 high) followed by 94.27 (Apr 7 High).

Pound – 1.5465

Initial support at 1.5130 (Apr 6 low) followed by 1.5044 (Mar 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5575 (Feb 23 high) followed by 1.5688 (Feb 18 low).

Australian Dollar – 0.9350

Initial support at 0.9224 (Apr 8 low) followed by the 0.9166 (Apr 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9388 (Apr 12 high) followed by 0.9406 (Nov 16 high).

Gold – 1155

Initial support at 1143 (Apr 8 low) followed by 1132 (Apr 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 1169 (Dec 8 high) followed by 1183 (0.764 of 1126.56-1044.85).

Oil – 85.90

Initial support at 85 (Intraday Support) followed by 83.80 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 86.00 (March high) followed by 88.00 (Intraday Resistance).