Greece Aid Expansion
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 3rd May (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) had a very mixed day of trading as the Euro rallied on hopes that a bigger bailout was on the cards whilst most other currencies were lower against the greenback on risk aversion. Stock markets fell aggressively on Friday in the US session as Goldman Sachs faced a potential criminal probe into its mortgage deals. Q1 GDP also missed estimates at 3.2% vs. 3.4% previously. In US stocks, DJIA -158 points closing at 11008, S& P -20 points closing at 1186 and NASDAQ -50 points closing at 2461. Looking ahead, April ISM Manufacturing is forecast at 59.9 vs. 59.6 previously.
The Euro (EUR) easing fears allowed the Euro relief rally another leg higher as the pair pushed past resistance at 1.3300. April Inflation was at 1.5% as forecast vs. 1.4% previously. Over the weekend news emerged that Greece had signed off on a 110bn rescue package in return for tough Austerity measures. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3226 and a high of 1.3342 before closing at 1.3315. Looking ahead, April PMI Manufacturing is forecast at 57.5 vs. 56.6.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) found strength in the Goldman Sachs led US stock sell off. USD/JPY remained close to the Y94 level however as sentiment towards the pair is bullish. EUR/JPY also pushed to Y126 on short covering but most other pairs were lower on the day. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 93.88 and a high of 94.60 before closing the day around 93.92 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) tested 1.5400 in Europe before easing back in the US session. EUR/GBP was bullish breaking above 0.8700 as the Euro recovered. Attention will turn to the UK election this Thursday with a hung parliament seen as weak for the Pound. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5253 and a high of 1.5390 before closing the day at 1.5340 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Bank Holiday in UK.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded above 0.9300 at the height of the markets enthusiasm but the degree of US stock markets losses overwhelmed the commodity currency. Gold is continuing to push higher and is providing the Aussie with support. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9247 and a high of 0.9324 before closing the US session at 0.9251.
Oil & Gold (XAU) traded at fresh year highs as resistance above $1170 was cleared away. Overall trading with a low of USD$1168 and high of USD$1182 before ending the New York session at USD$1179 an ounce. Crude Oil rallied on Gulf spill concerns. WTI Oil Closed +$0.98 at $86.15 a barrel.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2965 |
1.3115 |
1.3230 |
1.3416 |
1.3523 |
|
USD/JPY |
92.25 |
92.74 |
94.00 |
94.79 |
95.29 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4805 |
1.5126 |
1.5270 |
1.5524 |
1.5688 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.9003 |
0.9137 |
0.9250 |
0.9364 |
0.9406 |
|
XAU/USD |
1135.00 |
1146 |
1178.00 |
1183 |
1226.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
85.00 |
86 |
86.30 |
88 |
90.00 |
Euro – 1.3230
Initial support at 1.3115 (Apr 28 low) followed by 1.2965 (Apr 29 2009 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3416 (Apr 27 high) followed by 1.3523 (Apr 20 high)
Yen – 94.00
Initial support is located at 92.74 (Apr 22 low) followed by 92.25 (38.2% retracement of 88.13 – 94.77). Initial resistance is now at 94.79 (Aug 5 high) followed by 95.29 (Aug 18 High).
Pound – 1.5270
Initial support at 1.5126 (Apr 28 low) followed by 1.4805 (Mar 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5524 (Apr 15 low) followed by 1.5688 (Feb 18 low).
Australian Dollar – 0.9250
Initial support at 0.9137 (Apr 28 low) followed by the 0.9003 (Mar 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9364 (Apr 15 high) followed by 0.9406 (Nov 16 high).
Gold – 1178
Initial support at 1146 (Apr 27 low) followed by 1135 (Apr 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 1183 (0.764 of 1126.56-1044.85) followed by 1226 (Dec 5 high).
Oil – 86.20
Initial support at 86.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 85 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 88.00 (March high) followed by 90.00 (Intraday Resistance).
