Dow Drops 1000 points, Market Chaos
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 7th May (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was extremely strong on safe haven demand as the markets experienced the sharpest drop in the history of the Dow Jones Index. Stocks were under pressure due to a rumored misclick from a trader at a large firm but the market recovered most of the 1000 point drop by the close.In US stocks, DJIA -347 points closing at 10520, S& P -37 points closing at 1128 and NASDAQ -82 points closing at 2319. Looking ahead, Non Farm Payrolls are forecast at 200k vs. 162 previously. April Unemployment Rate forecast at 9.7%.
The Euro (EUR) took another leg lower on concerns the Greece Debt Crisis was spreading to other European countries and that the ECB were not acting quickly enough after President Trichet downplayed the situation. The ECB earlier had held at 1.0%. EUR/JPY was a big move down over 10 Yen on massive liquidations. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2519 and a high of 1.2885 before closing at 1.2620. Looking ahead, March German Industrial Orders are forecast at 1.4% vs. 0.0%.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened in panic selling of the USD/JPY down over 500 pips at one stage. EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY had 10+ Yen movements and AUD/JPY fell 8 yen in one of the most dramatic moves ever seen in currency markets. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 87.99 and a high of 94.00 before closing the day around 89.90 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) crashed lower as risk aversion surged and fears of a hung election pushed the pair lower. GBP/JPY added weight and exit polls suggested that the conservatives would struggle to gain a clear majority. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4709 and a high of 1.5151 before closing the day at 1.51 in the New York session. Looking ahead, April PPI output is forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.7% previously.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) crashed with Oil falling through 0.9000 to test 0.8700 at the height of the panic. The market was able to recover well however and the pair found support into the US close. March Retail Sales were weaker than expected at 0.3% vs. 0.8% previously. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8707 and a high of 0.9095 before closing the US session at 0.8850.
Oil & Gold (XAU) surged above $1200 as the alternative currency found solid demand. Overall trading with a low of USD$1172 and high of USD$1211 before ending the New York session at USD$1205 an ounce. Crude Oil slumped on global recovery concerns sparked by the Greece Crisis. WTI Oil Closed -$2.86 at $77.11 a barrel.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2330 |
1.2457 |
1.2690 |
1.2891 |
1.3115 |
|
USD/JPY |
88.14 |
88.26 |
92.20 |
93.29 |
94.99 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4516 |
1.4718 |
1.4760 |
1.5014 |
1.5265 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8579 |
0.8716 |
0.8905 |
0.9275 |
0.9325 |
|
XAU/USD |
1146.00 |
1157 |
1199.00 |
1210 |
1212.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
75.00 |
76 |
77.50 |
80 |
82.50 |
Euro – 1.2690
Initial support at 1.2457 (Mar 4 low) followed by 1.2330 (October 28 2008 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2891 (May 6 high) followed by 1.3115 (Apr 28 high)
Yen – 92.20
Initial support is located at 88.26 (May 6 low) followed by 88.14 (April 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 93.29 (May 6 low) followed by 94.99 (May 5 high).
Pound – 1.4760
Initial support at 1.4718 (May 6 low) followed by 1.4516 (April 27 2009 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5014 (May 6 High) followed by 1.5265 (May 4 low).
Australian Dollar – 0.8905
Initial support at 0.8716 (Mar 6 low) followed by the 0.8579 (0.618 of 0.8578 – 0.9389). Initial resistance is now at 0.9275 (Mar 4 high) followed by 0.9325 (Apr 30 high).
Gold – 1199
Initial support at 1166 (Apr 30 low) followed by 1146 (Apr 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1212 (Dec 4 high) followed by 1226 (Dec 3 high).
Oil – 77.50
Initial support at 76.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 75.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 80.00 (March high) followed by 82.50 (Intraday Resistance).
