Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 14/05/2010

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 14th May (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gained amidst a number of currencies on Thursday largely on the back of falling equity markets. Weekly jobless claims eased by 4K to record at 444K. In other news Fed vice chairman Kohn signaled that injection of funds in the past 24 months would not necessarily confirm inflation. US share markets saw the Dow Jones fall by 114 points (-1.1%), S&amp P down 1.2%, and the NASDAQ down 31 points (-1.3%). US Retail sales are expected to be released at 0.3% versus previous 1.9% whilst Consumer sentiment is expected to rise to 73.5 from 72.2. Industrial production is also released on Friday expected to be seen at 0.6%, previous 0.1%.

The Euro (EUR) eased further against the dollar as concerns were raised that economic growth may be hindered following stringent austerity packages. Such views add to the notion that the ECB is likely to maintain interest rates on hold for a sustained period of time. The EUSUSD traded at a high of 1.2680 before falling to its lowest level since March 2009 of 1.2520.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) once again an uneventful day of trade on the Japanese Yen as it played second fiddle to equity markets. The USDJPY traded in a range as it has down so for most of the trading week to register a low of 92.65 and a high of93.55.

The Sterling (GBP) also traded lower in continued momentum from previous day’s dovish BoE inflation report. The GBP had experienced a brief rally as the newly formed Coalition vowed to take quick action against the budget deficit. The GBP traded with a low of 1.4574 and a high of 1.4918.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) Unemployment surprisingly jumped to 5.4%, yet the AUD rallied in Asia as Employment grew by 33.7K jobs. The AUD was the best performing currency against the USD on Thursday but failed to sustain gains as equity markets fell in the US. The AUD traded with a low of 0.8933 and a high of 0.9024.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) XAU fell off its previous session highs a trader looked to book in profits. XAU traded with a high of 1243.50 and a low of 1227.40. Crude oil fell by US$0.27 a barrel to US$75.38 weighed further by higher inventories.

Euro – 1.2540

Initial support at 1.2457 (Mar 4 low) followed by 1.2330 (October 28 2008 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3115 (Apr 28 low) followed by 1.3214 (May 4 high)

Yen – 92.77

Initial support is located at 88.26 (May 6 low) followed by 88.14 (April 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 94.19 (May 6 high) followed by 94.99 (May 5 high).

Pound – 1.4615

Initial support at 1.4477 (May 7 low) followed by 1.4398 (April 22, 2009 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5148 (May 6 High) followed by 1.5265 (May 4 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.8956

Initial support at 0.8716 (Mar 6 low) followed by the 0.8579 (0.618 of 0.8578 – 0.9389). Initial resistance is now at 0.9275 (Mar 4 high) followed by 0.9325 (Apr 30 high).

Gold – 1236.20

Initial support at 1166 (Apr 30 low) followed by 1146 (Apr 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1248.50 (May 12 high, Record High) followed by 1250 (Psychological Round number).

Oil – 73.36

Initial support at 73.20 (Intraday Support) followed by 71.99 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 76.03 (Intraday) followed by 77.65 (Intraday).