Japanese GDP Weaker than Expected
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 17th August (00:30 GMT)
Written by Anthony Darvall
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was helped to day highs in the Asian session after the disappointing Japanese GDP figures led to more stock market weakness. The rest of the day saw a modest bounce however with traders taking profits and stocks rebounding in the US session. In US stocks, DJIA –1points closing at 10316, S& P 0 points closing at 1079 and NASDAQ +8 points closing at 2181. Looking ahead, July Housing Starts forecast at 0.56m vs. 0.549mn previously. Also released, July Industrial Output forecast at 0.5% vs. 0.1% previously.
The Euro (EUR) was able to rally in the US session on news China was selling US treasuries and buying Euro bonds for higher yield and diversification. The move away from the USD was a big story back in 2007 and could still resurface if the US debt situation worsens. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2733 and a high of 1.2873 before closing at 1.2825. Looking ahead, August German ZEW Survey forecast at 23 vs. 14.6 previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY fell from the open as Q2 GDP came at 0.1% vs. 0.6% q/q forecast. Risk aversion kept the Yen strong and when US 10 year Bonds yields fell to year lows the USD/JPY slipped to Y85.20 support. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 85.10 and a high of 86.01 before closing the day around 85.30 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) hit day lows in Asia but was then bought on dips all the way up to 1.5700 as the USD weakened and stocks rallied off lows in the US session. GBP/JPY fell to lower Y133 levels on weakness in the major. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5533 and a high of 1.5705 before closing the day at 1.5650 in the New York session. Looking ahead, July CPI is forecast at -0.2% vs. 0.1% m/m.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke below 0.8900 on risk aversion after the weak Japanese growth numbers but was able to find support and rally towards 0.9000 in the US session. AUD/NZD is creeping higher once again back at the 1.2700 level. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8858 and a high of 0.8996 before closing the US session at 0.8960. Looking ahead, August RBA Minutes released.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold resumed its trend higher breaking above $1220. Overall trading with a low of USD$1214 and high of USD $1228 before ending the New York session at USD$1224 an ounce. Oil struggled to take advantage of USD weakness as Japanese GDP added to global growth concerns. WTI Oil Closed -$0.35 at $75.39 a barrel.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2523 |
1.2737 |
1.2825 |
1.2933 |
1.3334 |
|
USD/JPY |
83.50 |
84.73 |
85.25 |
86.66 |
88.12 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5125 |
1.5400 |
1.5665 |
1.5713 |
1.5999 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8508 |
0.8738 |
0.8970 |
0.9000 |
0.9389 |
|
XAU/USD |
1157.00 |
1190 |
1223 |
1244 |
1265.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
72.50 |
75 |
75.25 |
77 |
78.00 |
Euro – 1.2825
Initial support at 1.2737 (July 22 low) followed by 1.2523 (July 13 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2933 (Aug 12 low) followed by 1.3334 (August 6 high)
Yen – 85.75
Initial support is located at 84.73 (August 11 low) followed by 83.50 (June 1995 low). Initial resistance is now at 86.66 (August 3 high) followed by 88.12 (July 28 high).
Pound – 1.5665
Initial support at 1.5400 (July 26 low) followed by 1.5125 (July 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5713 (August 12 high) followed by 1.5999 (Aug 6 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.8970
Initial support at 0.8738 (July 22 high) followed by the 0.8508 (61.8% retrace of 0.8067-0.9222). Initial resistance is now at 0. 9000 (Psychological Figure) followed by 0.9222 (Aug 6 high).
Gold – 1223
Initial support at 1190 (Aug 10 low) followed by 1157 (July 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 1244 (July 1 high) followed by 1265 (June 21 high).
Oil – 75.25
Initial support at 75.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 72.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 77.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 78.00 (Intraday Resistance).
