Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 31/08/2010

Bernanke Bounce Fades Quickly

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 31st August (00:30 GMT)

Written by Anthony Darvall

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) started the day on a weak footing on expectations that an emergency BOJ meeting will support global stock markets further. When the BOJ failed to meet market expectations the sentiment turned sour and the USD gained across the board on safe haven flows. US Personal Income gained 0.2% in July and spending rose 0.4%. In US stocks, DJIA -140points closing at 10010, S&amp P -15 points closing at 1048 and NASDAQ -33 points closing at 2119. Looking ahead, June Case Shiller House Prices forecast at 0.2% vs. 0.5% previously. Also released, FOMC minutes.

The Euro (EUR) the Euro relief rally stalled in Asia and was dragged lower once again from heavy EUR/JPY sales post BOJ. August Economic sentiment increased to 101.8 vs. 101.1 previously. The selling continued in US and the Euro finished at day lows. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2658 and a high of 1.2757 before closing at 1.2665. Looking ahead, August German Unemployment is forecast at -20k and the rate to remain at 7.6%.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) USD/JPY hit day highs at 85.90 on BOJ optimism but then heavy selling emerged as the special meeting failed to directly address FX. Further losses were seen throughout the day on weak US stocks. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 84.47 and a high of 85.93 before closing the day around 84.50 in the New York session. UPDATE July Retail Sales forecast at 3.9% vs. 3.2% previously.

The Sterling (GBP) tracked general market movements topping in Asia before giving up all its gains and then turned negative in New York. Month end flows are expected to be slightly negative for the pound and may way on Tuesday with London closed on Monday. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5454 and a high of 1.5580 before closing the day at 1.5465 in the New York session. Update August Consumer Confidence improves to -18 vs. -22 previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) risk off selling in the US and heavy AUD/JPY sales after the BOJ helped push the Aussie back to lower 0.8900 and threatens to return the pair to the recent downtrend. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8912 and a high of 0.9029 before closing the US session at 0.8925. Update July Retail Sales forecast at 0.7% vs. 0.4% previously.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) was very contained in a $5 range above $1230 an ounce.Overall trading with a low of USD$1233 and high of USD $1238 before ending the New York session at USD$1237 an ounce. Oil fell sharply after investor sentiment soured in the US session. WTI Oil Closed -$1.00 at $74.20 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.2635

Initial support at 1.2588 (Aug 24 low) followed by 1.2434 (61.8% retrace of 1.1877-1.3334). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2933 (Aug 12 low) followed by 1.3000 (Big figure Resistance)

Yen – 84.55

Initial support is located at 84.28 (August 27 low) followed by 83.60 (May 1995 low). Initial resistance is now at 86.38 (August 13 high) followed by 87.15 (38.2% retrace of 92.89-83.60).

Pound – 1.5455

Initial support at 1.5324 (38.2% retrace of 1.4231-1.5999) followed by 1.5125 (July 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5713 (Aug 12 high) followed by 1.5999 (Aug 06 high).

Australian Dollar – 0.8915

Initial support at 0.8771 (Aug 25 low) followed by the 0.8634 (July 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9080 (August 17 high) followed by 0.9222 (Aug 6 high).

Gold – 1236

Initial support at 1210 (Aug 13 low) followed by 1190 (Aug 10 low). Initial resistance is now at 1247 (June 30 high) followed by 1265 (June 21 high).

Oil – 74.20

Initial support at 72.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 71.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 75.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 76.00 (Intraday Resistance).