CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 10th September (00:30 GMT)
Written by Anthony Darvall
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was slightly weaker on the back of small gains in US stocks and increasing demand for higher yielding assets. Weekly Jobless Claims beat expectations falling to 451k vs. 478k. July’s Trade Balance also improved to -$42.8bn vs. -$49.9bn previously.In US stocks, DJIA +28 points closing at 10415, S& P +5 points closing at 1104 and NASDAQ +7 points closing at 2235.
The Euro (EUR) was up and down as the market trading in a range around the 1.2700 level. EUR/JPY continued to provide direction the popular cross rallying on good US jobs data. August German CPI was confirmed at 1.0% y/y. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2663 and a high of 1.2768 before closing at 1.2700.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) the market is failing to respond to Japanese Government Officials concerns on the strength of the Yen and this is encouraging the market to test new lows. Better US data however did prompt some profit taking and the pair finished near highs at Y84. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 83.48 and a high of 84.05 before closing the day around 83.90 in the New York session. Update Chinese Trade Balance at 20bn vs. 27.1bn previously.
The Sterling (GBP) continued to weaken with the market selling rallies. The BOE failed to impact holding at 1.0% and keeping the QE steady ay 200bn. The market did sell however on weak July Trade Balance figures at -8.7bn. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5374 and a high of 1.5481 before closing the day at 1.5430 in the New York session. Looking ahead, August PPI is forecast at 0.1% vs. 0.2%.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) was the strongest currency in the market rallying on the back of very strong Jobs numbers in August. Employment Change was +30k and the Unemployment Rate dropped to 5.1% vs. 5.2% previously. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9170 and a high of 0.9280 before closing the US session at 0.9230.
Oil & Gold (XAU) fell back on profit taking after failing at the $1260 level.Overall trading with a low of USD$1242 and high of USD $1259 before ending the New York session at USD$1245 an ounce. Oil failed to hold gains above $75 a barrel falling heavily in New York. WTI Oil Closed -$0.20 at $74.60 a barrel.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2434 |
1.2588 |
1.2680 |
1.2933 |
1.3000 |
|
USD/JPY |
81.85 |
83.35 |
84.10 |
85.23 |
86.38 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5125 |
1.5297 |
1.5410 |
1.5500 |
1.5713 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8771 |
0.9055 |
0.9235 |
0.9389 |
0.9500 |
|
XAU/USD |
1210.00 |
1232 |
1245 |
1265 |
1300.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
70.00 |
72.50 |
74.80 |
75.00 |
76.00 |
Euro – 1.2680
Initial support at 1.2588 (Aug 24 low) followed by 1.2434 (61.8% retrace of 1.1877-1.3334). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2933 (Aug 12 low) followed by 1.3000 (Big figure Resistance)
Yen – 84.10
Initial support is located at 83.35 (Sept 8 low) followed by 81.85 (May 1995 low). Initial resistance is now at 85.23 (Sept 3 high) followed by 86.36 (Aug 13 high).
Pound – 1.5410
Initial support at 1.5297 (Sept 7 low) followed by 1.5125 (July 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5500 (Big Figure) followed by 1.5713 (Aug 12 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.9235
Initial support at 0.9055 (Sept 2 low) followed by the 0.8771 (Aug 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9389 (Aug 12 high) followed by 0.9500 (Round Number).
Gold – 1245
Initial support at 1232 (Aug 31 low) followed by 1210 (Aug 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 1265 (June 21 high) followed by 1300 (round number).
Oil – 74.80
Initial support at 72.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 71.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 75.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 76.00 (Intraday Resistance).
