CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 15th September (00:30 GMT)
Written by Anthony Darvall
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) market speculation that the FED may introduce new Quantitative Easing as early as November. August Retails Sales were strong at 0.4% vs. 0.3% forecast m/m. Stocks struggled to extend gains though as profit taking set in towards the close. In US stocks, DJIA -17 points closing at 10526, S& P -1 points closing at 1121 and NASDAQ +4 points closing at 2289. Looking ahead, August Industrial Output is forecast at 0.2% vs. 1.0% previously.
The Euro (EUR) was the biggest beneficiary of the USD weakness surging past 1.3000 in New York. September German ZEW Current jumped to 59.9 vs. 44 previously. EUR/AUD and EUR/GBP are bouncing off month trend lows and is helping the major outperform. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2828 and a high of 1.3035 before closing at 1.2990. Looking ahead, August Inflation is forecast at is forecast at 0.2% vs. -0.3% previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded at fresh 15 year lows after the announcement that PM KAN crushed his challenger to maintain the leadership of the ruling DPJ party. Support was found at Y83 but the market was able to rebound. Crosses did better with most finishing with small gains. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 82.91 and a high of 83.74 before closing the day around 83.05 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) with very weak house price data with August RICS at -32 the market sold the GBP at the start of Europe but from that point on USD weakness allowed a substantial rally back above 1.5500. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5347 and a high of 1.5590 before closing the day at 1.5540 in the New York session. Looking ahead, August Claimant Count -3k vs. -3.8k previously.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) was very strong tracking the Euro to trade at fresh 2 year highs above 0.9400. August Nab Business confidence surged to 11 vs. 2 previously and the economic recovery is proceeding at a fast pace. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9312 and a high of 0.9459 before closing the US session at 0.9410.
Oil & Gold (XAU) treaded at fresh all time highs above $1270 an ounce on US QE expansion concerns.Overall trading with a low of USD$1247 and high of USD $1275 before ending the New York session at USD$1270 an ounce. Oil was sold aggressively after failing for a second time at the $78 level. WTI Oil Closed -$0.40 at $76.80 a barrel.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2434 |
1.2588 |
1.3015 |
1.3033 |
1.3187 |
|
USD/JPY |
79.75 |
81.85 |
83.10 |
84.43 |
85.23 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5125 |
1.5297 |
1.5550 |
1.5588 |
1.5713 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.9055 |
0.9171 |
0.9425 |
0.9458 |
0.9500 |
|
XAU/USD |
1210.00 |
1232 |
1270 |
1274 |
1300.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
72.50 |
75.00 |
76.50 |
78.00 |
80.00 |
Euro – 1.3015
Initial support at 1.2588 (Aug 24 low) followed by 1.2434 (61.8% retrace of 1.1877-1.3334). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3033 (Aug 14 low) followed by 1.3187 (Aug 11 High)
Yen – 83.10
Initial support is located at 81.85 (May 1995 low) followed by 79.75 (Apr 1995 low). Initial resistance is now at 84.43 (Sept13 high) followed by 85.23 (Sep 3 high).
Pound – 1.5550
Initial support at 1.5297 (Sept 7 low) followed by 1.5125 (July 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5588 (Big Figure) followed by 1.5713 (Aug 12 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.9425
Initial support at 0.9171 (Sept 9 low) followed by the 0.9055 (Sep 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9458 (Apr 14 high) followed by 0.9500 (Round Number).
Gold – 1270
Initial support at 1232 (Aug 31 low) followed by 1210 (Aug 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 1275 (June 21 high) followed by 1300 (round number).
Oil – 76.50
Initial support at 75.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 72.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 78.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 80.00 (Intraday Resistance).
