Daily Outlook 27th September 2010
Dollar Struggling to Find Buyers
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) with stock markets extending gains on a near daily basis the USD continued to fall further with both EUR/USD and USD/JPY in play. August Durable Goods Orders -1.3% vs. -1.0% previously. In US stocks, DJIA +197 points closing at 10860, S& P +23 points closing at 1148 and NASDAQ +54 points closing at 2381. Looking ahead, August Midwest MFG Index previously at 81.4.
The Euro (EUR) a stronger than expected September German IFO at 106.8 vs. 106.3 previously allowed the market to extend past 1.3400 before trading at month highs just under the 1.3500 bullish target. The alternate reserve currency is shrugging off Debt concerns to once again capitalize on USD weakness. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3287 and a high of 1.3492 before closing at 1.33482. Looking ahead, August Private Loans forecast at 1.1% vs. 0.9% previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) some sharp movement in Asia on Friday prompted speculation that the BOJ was involved in the market once again but the lack of confirmation and follow through saw sellers come back into the market to push USD/JPY to day lows. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 84.12 and a high of 85.38 before closing the day around 84.31 in the New York session. UPDATE August Trade Balance at 103bn vs. 803bn previously.
The Sterling (GBP) tracked the Euro to month highs above 1.5800 as US QE2 speculation and positive risk appetite overwhelmed the Pound sellers. The major topside resistance remains at 1.6000 after the market failed at this level during the last rally. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5643 and a high of 1.5843 before closing the day at 1.5820 in the New York session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) The Aussie did well in the ‘risk on’ environment trading above 0.9600 for the first time this year. AUD/JPY was stable but strong above Y81 and AUD/NZD is consolidating above 1.3000. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9464 and a high of 0.9615 before closing the US session at 0.9588.
Oil & Gold (XAU) the market tested $1300 but failed to breach the round figure. Overall trading with a low of USD$1292 and high of USD $1300 before ending the New York session at USD$1296 an ounce. Oil rallied sharply playing catch-up with the rest of the market. WTI Oil Closed +$1.31 at $76.49 a barrel.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2919 |
1.3248 |
1.3475 |
1.3493 |
1.3818 |
|
USD/JPY |
82.88 |
84.04 |
84.30 |
85.93 |
86.70 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5297 |
1.5449 |
1.5820 |
1.5844 |
1.5999 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.9314 |
0.9442 |
0.9600 |
0.9615 |
0.9850 |
|
XAU/USD |
1232.00 |
1263 |
1297 |
1300 |
1324 |
|
OIL/USD |
72.50 |
75.00 |
76.70 |
78.00 |
80.00 |
Euro – 1.3475
Initial support at 1.3248 (Sep 22 low) followed by 1.2919 (Sep 6 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3493 (Sept 24 High) followed by 1.3818 (Mar 17 high)
Yen – 84.30
Initial support is located at 84.04 (61.8% retrace of 1.5999-1.5297) followed by 82.88 (Sept 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 85.93 (Sep 16 high) followed by 86.70 (38.2% retrace of 92.89-81.88).
Pound – 1.5820
Initial support at 1.5449 (Sept 15 low) followed by 1.5297 (Sep 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5844 (Sep 24 high) followed by 1.5999 (Aug 6 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.9600
Initial support at 0.9442 (Sept 21 low) followed by the 0.9314 (Sep 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9615 (Sep 24 high) followed by 0.9850 (July 15, 2008 high).
Gold – 1297
Initial support at 1263 (Sept 15 low) followed by 1232 (Aug 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 1300 (Round Number) followed by 1324 (1263.20 plus 1.618 of 1236.80-1274.95).
Oil – 76.70
Initial support at 75.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 72.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 78 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 80.00 (Intraday Resistance).
