Currency Updates:
The NZD was the main mover over the last 24 hours, giving up quite a lot of ground against most of the other major currencies and this in turn has had an effect on the AUD, which has also slipped on the crosses. The economic calendar is totally empty so we cannot expect to get any volatility from there.
TECHNICALS: Not much change from yesterday morning and we are still faced with very strong technical support at .9350 and down through .9315 (see chart); the former was a previous pivot (first a major low, then a spike high) which was the low on Monday last. The main support below there is a 38.2% Fibo at .9280. Short-term technical resistance levels now at .9435/50.
CROSSES: EUR/AUD is again testing the neckline of the double-top formation, which comes in near 1.4450/60 (see chart). I favour selling into this resistance with fairly tight stops above 1.4490. GBP/AUD was a notable mover last night, moving up toward recent highs at 1.7160. AUD/JPY is consolidating below 93.00 and a deeper test towards very strong technical support 90.00/50 looks possible. AUD/NZD is edging higher as the NZD loses some of its recent gloss.
ORDERS & FLOWS: Real-money funds have been buying dips in recent days, un-doing some over-hedging, and more bids are reported at regular 10 pip intervals below .9350.
INTRADAY CONCLUSION: I think the bears might have a try at pushing the AUD lower, especially if stockmarkets stay soft and AUD/JPY attracts more sellers. If this does happen, it will more likely come from a weaker USD/JPY rather than a big fall in the AUD/USD. At current levels, I prefer to stay in buy-AUD-dip camp.
TRADE OF THE DAY: EUR/AUD still remains the stand-out trade for me, with clear resistance at 1.4460; sell intraday rallies towards there with fairly tight stops in place. USD/JPY also looks more likely to fall than rise; wait and see what happens at trend-line support near 98.20 (see chart). If it breaks, look for short-term rallies to sell into.
