USD Trading Outlook (28-04-2014)

Currency Summaries
EUR/USD Tight ranges held in NY as action early in the session saw the day’s range basically matched. NY traded 1.3830-1.3847 with the it settling near 1.3840 to end the week. Second tier US data wasn’t able to stir the market. April’s Markit Composite Flash came in at 54.9 vs. the prior 55.7 with the employment component coming in at its lowest since June 2012. Ongoing Russia/Ukraine tensions and a looming Ukrainian ultimatum for Russia due tomorrow kept traders from pushing the pair too far. Market focus seems tied to April 30 when big econ & event risk is due. German jobs & EZ CPI for April as well as the FOMC are scheduled for Tuesday. The CPI is likely to get most attention and send EUR lower. Market sentiment will grow that the ECB will have to act soon if inflation is slipping. A soft CPI may mean an end to EUR/USD’s rally and see the pair break below the 21 week MA and T-L off July’s low which have been supporting dips. A clean break below that support and the April low may see the pair make a run for the 2014 low near 1.3480.