USD Trading Outlook (07-07-2014)

AUD/USD Europe didn’t allow the pair to take back any losses after Stevens’ comment and the weak Oz retail sales data. The Europe high was limited to 0.9383 and the pair sat just below that as NY got going. The big beat on the jobs report sent US yields and the USD soaring. AUD/USD collapsed, pierced the 55-DMA and in no time hit a new s-t trend low of 0.9327. Bears couldn’t press further though as bids into the lows of June 6 & 18 were thick. US bond yields began giving back after the 10 year yield couldn’t break the 200-DMA. AUD/USD lifted off the lows as bears lightened up into the long US weekend. Late in the day the pair sat near 0.9350. Techs have turned bearish and more downside may be due. Day/week RSIs are biased down and a bearish engulfing candle forms on the weekly chart. Wider yield spreads bolster the bear view as well. If 0.9320 support breaks bears set their sights on the 0.9195/0.9210 area where the 200-DMA and lows from April & May sit.