USD Trading Outlook (14-07-2014)

AUD/USD The steady ascent off the July 10 low persisted in Europe as s-t bears became frustrated. AUD/USD was pushed to just above 0.9400 as NY got going. the short covering remained through the early NY hours and a high of 0.9409 was hit. All of the day’s gains were quickly erased though as The Australian posted an interview with the RBA’s Stevens. http://bit.ly/1q3GMt2 He warned of complacency about Australia’s econ growth and noted the AUD was quite high base on most standard metrics. The pair dived to a 0.9376 low. A small bounce had the pair near 0.9385 late in the day. downside risks are extant as last week’s bearish engulfing candle remains valid and a long upper wick forms on this week’s candle. Next week’s event risk may see bears get their wishes. RBA minutes and NAB’s Q2 business confidence data are due. A dovish RBA and poor confidence data could lead to a test of key 0.9320/30 support. If broken the recent slide likely accelerates and the 200-DMA and May low near 0.9200 will then be in play.