USD Trading Outlook (15-07-2014)
AUD/USD Numerous attempts to rally AUD/USD above the 21-DMA (0.9401) in European and NY hours failed. Bulls were reluctant to push the pair too far ahead of the RBA minutes for fear the content will hold some dovish comments that reflect recent Stevens rhetoric. NY walked in with the pair sitting just above the 21-DMA and steadily applied pressure throughout the session. Lifts in US bond yields had the USD generally firm. AUD/USD was pressed to a NY low of 0.9387 and the pair sat just above that low late in the day. Traders now look to the RBA minutes for their next cue. Should rhetoric over AUD strength be ramped up, AUD/USD should stay heavy in Asia & Europe. Traders then look to Yellen’s testimony to see if she gives any hawkish hints. It’s unlikely she will but if they should get dropped further pressure on
AUD/USD will be applied. We may then see a test of key s-t support near 0.9320. A break there should accelerate the slide from June’s high and put the 0.9200 support zone in play.
