USD Trading Outlook (21-07-2014)

AUD/USD Europe rallied AUD/USD towards 0.9390/95 resistance after another attempt to break below the daily cloud and 0.9320/30 support failed in Asia. Early NY was quiet until Canadian CPI came out above f/c. commodity currencies went bid across the board after the data. AUD/USD spiked up to 0.9411 and shook out some weak hands. The pair quickly reversed those gains though as the USD went bid against most of the major currencies with EUR & GBP the biggest losers. from the high, AUD/USD dived down to 0.9366 but no further losses were possible. EUR/USD’s break below 1.3500 saw minimal follow through and risk sentiment improved to send US equities higher. AUD/USD climbed for the rest of the session and sat near 0.9395 late in the day. AUD/USD bears are frustrated and may get squeezed further as daily RSI turns up and the cloud cannot be broken. A long lower wick on the weekly candle suggests bulls are putting up a fight as well. Stops are noted above today’s high and if run 0.9455/60 is targeted. RBA speeches from Stevens & Debelle plus Oz Q2 CPI present risks to bullish sentiment next week.