USD Trading Outlook (24-07-2014)

AUD/USD Europe added to Asia’s gains and pushed AUD/USD to a 0.9455 high ahead of NY’s open. Asian offers into the July 10 high aided to stem the rise. The pair sat just below that high as NY got going. Early action saw a dip towards 0.9435 but buyers were waiting and the pair returned to the day’s highs later in the afternoon. Buys of AUD vs. GBP, EUR and NZD aided to keep AUD/USD elevated for the NY session. Some stops are noted above 0.9465 and may be targeted in Asia if the pair doesn’t see a meaningful pullback soon. If the stops are run the July high is then in play. There is not much in the way of major OZ data due until the end of July so cues for trading will come from geopolitical an foreign sources mostly. For now the bulls have the edge as yield spreads widen and day/week RSIs provide positive momentum. They have work to do though as the 0.9460/00 zone sees some decent resistance. Old and new T-Ls, the July high and the 76.4 Fib of 0.9758-0.8660 sit in that zone. If broken, longer-term bulls will be looking at the October high.