USD Trading Outlook (25-07-2014)

AUD/USD After the post-China PMI inspired gains faded in Asia, Europe made sure they were completely erased as the pair slipped towards 0.9430 before bouncing near 0.9445 into NY’s open. NY applied bearish pressure on the pair as the USD was generally bid and the EUR crosses firmed. EUR/AUD bounced off hourly support near 1.4250 and ascended towards 1.4310/15 to aid in further losses for AUD/USD. The pair slid early in NY and accelerated a bit upon breaking below 0.9430 after US claims data came in better than f/c to send US bond yield higher. A low of 0.9410 was hit. A meager bounce towards 0.9430 was repelled after the IMF lowered global growth forecasts which made particular note of China slowing. Late in the day the pair sat just above the day’s low. Recent longs may have some concerns. The TL off the Oct high capped another rally and the daily RSI diverged on today’s high. A retest of key s-t support near 0.9320/30 cannot be ruled out.