USD Trading Outlook (28-07-2014)

AUD/USD Numerous rallies in Europe & NY off the 0.9400 support area stalled near 0.9420/25 resistance. The pair’s inability to crack 0.9480/00 and TL resistance off the Oct high earlier in the week had recent bulls frustrated and looking for the exits. NY initially pushed the pair up from the 0.9400 area as June durable goods data beat but May’s data saw a big downward revision. The 0.9420 level was breached but the lift faltered again. Risk sentiment was sour as the Ukraine/Russia situation shows no signs of abating. Bonds, USD & JPY were firm while equities were soft for the entire NY session. AUD/USD made a steady descent from the NY high and eventually made a new session low of 0.9393. Bids near the 200-HMA and ahead of the July 23 low slowed bears. Little bounce was seen though as geopolitical risks remains and next week sees a slew of risk that may propel the USD higher. Should next week’s event/data risks be USD positive, AUD/USD is likely to retest the key 0.9320/30 zone. If broken the 200-DMA and May’s low come into play.