USD Trading Outlook (13-08-2014)

AUD/USD The pair spent most of NY near the top end of the day’s 0.9248-0.9278 range. The combination of improved AU econ data, wider yield spreads and a soft USD allowed the pair to linger just under 0.9280 for almost the entire NY session. The pair seems to be entering a consolidation phase that allows it to digest recent losses. This phase will also allow near o/s daily RSI to unwind ahead of the next leg lower. Westpac August consumer confidence data is due later. If the reading mimics the NAB business confidence data AUD/USD may get another boost and clear offers in the 0.9285/95 area. The longer-term trend remains bearish though and bulls will need to clear 0.9354/76 (daily cloud base, 55-DMA, Aug 6 high) to dent the recent slide. A clean break above the TL off the April 2013 high is needed to seriously threaten the bear trend.