USD Trading Outlook (15-08-2014)

AUD/USD The USD was generally soft in Europe but AUD/USD seemed to only grudgingly climb higher. The pair lifted from near 0.9300 to just above 0.9320 before pulling back near 0.9315 into NY’s open. The pace of the ascent may have been influenced by another soft day for commodity prices. NY made their own try at taking out structural resistance in the 0.9330/40 area after the softer than expected jobless claims. Bulls could only manage a 0.9328 high though as Asian sellers near 0.9330 prevented further gains. A rebound for the USD then saw the pair slip from the highs and it sat near 0.9315 late in the day. While the long-term trend remains down, bulls have the edge short term. Daily & weekly RSIs provide positive momentum for now and yield spreads are neutral. The 0.9330/40 resistance may get tested again. If it break the next hurdle for bulls is 0.9354/76 where the daily cloud base, 55-DMA and August 6 high sit.