USD Trading Outlook (18-08-2014)

AUD/USD After Asia failed to break the pair above structural resistance in the 0.9330/40 area Europe slid the pair down near 0.9315 before a bounce had it just above 0.9320 into NY’s open. An early NY lift faded quickly as the USD firmed. AUD/USD slipped to houlry support near 0.9310. That support broke on the Ukraine/Russia headlines and a low of 0.9298 was hit. The effects of the headlines were short lived though. A rebound in risk, lead by equities, allowed AUD/USD to recover some ground. The pair rallied and sat near 0.9325 late in the day. Traders now look to the the RBA for their AUD directional cues now as there is only second tier Oz data due next week. The RBA minutes are released Tuesday and Stevens gives a speech on Wednesday. Jawboning to try and get AUD lower is likely. The US CPI on Tuesday will impact from the USD side. A topside surprise may have the Fed wondering if they’ll need to give more weight to prices at future Fed meetings.