USD Trading Outlook (04-09-2014)

AUD/USD AUD continued to benefit from upbeat data in European trade. AUD/USD added to gains from Asia and sat just above 0.9320 into NY’s open. The USD was generally weak in early NY and the pair pushed further. A high of 0.9352 was hit before the pair slipped back near 0.9340 late in the day. JPY strength persisted in NY’s afternoon to push AUD/JPY from 98.14 towards 97.90 and aided AUD/USD’s slide from the high. Traders now turn their focus to Oz retail sales and trade data. Should sale beat forecasts the mkt might being to rethink the RBA’s neutral rate stance especially after Stevens’ tip to the dangers of housing prices. Solid results from sales & trade might propel AUD/USD above the 55-DMA and key s-t res near 0.9375/80. IF that occurs the July high is back in play. Soft data results likely see the pair linger in its recent 0.9235/0.9375 range.